638
FXUS64 KTSA 300228
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have either dissipated or moved
east of the area this evening. Dry weather should prevail for the
rest of the night, with a storm complex from the northwest not
expect to arrive until later Thursday morning. As such, have
removed pops for the rest the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as
the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the
morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening
trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a
broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase
rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected
to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper
wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late
Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east
Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave
passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered
activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of
the weekend.

Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some
medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging
possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end
coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height
rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move
through Tuesday night/early Wednesday.



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated shower/storm activity occurring early this evening in
portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR will trend
downward as the evening progresses, ending by or just after sunset.
VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the evening
and overnight hours. A complex of thunderstorms will be moving
eastward into eastern OK by mid-late morning Thursday, and if
they hold together, into western/northwestern AR by late afternoon
or early evening. Still some uncertainty on exact timing of the
thunderstorm complex as well as how low ceilings will drop as it
approaches the region. Therefore, timing of precipitation may need
to be adjusted in future aviation forecasts. At this time, models
indicate VFR should hold and prevail through much of the day
Thursday. However, lower ceilings/reduced visibilities (MVFR/IFR)
are likely underneath heavier rain/storms that occur.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  81  65  77 /  10  50  70  80
FSM   65  83  67  80 /  10  50  40  80
MLC   65  81  65  78 /  10  60  60  90
BVO   60  81  62  76 /  10  50  80  80
FYV   60  82  65  76 /  10  50  50  80
BYV   60  81  62  75 /  10  50  40  70
MKO   63  79  65  75 /  10  50  60  90
MIO   60  81  64  74 /  10  50  60  80
F10   63  78  65  76 /  10  50  70  90
HHW   65  76  65  76 /  10  60  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67