Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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960 FXUS64 KTSA 261728 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently working into central Oklahoma moves across the area. with an unstable airmass already in place across the region, any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with large hail the main concern. Tornadoes will also possible with storms that may interact with any leftover boundaries from previous convection. This will be especially true across western Arkansas, where a couple of boundaries are present. Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today to better reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term model guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that moves through the region. THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining in place through the period. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Mainly VFR conditions prevail this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with some MVFR ceilings across northeast Oklahoma. The trend of mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the valid period. Isolated thunderstorms have the potential impact the NW AR sites late this afternoon and early evening. Have added at short-term VCTS to handle this possibility. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 88 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 66 90 64 86 / 20 0 0 10 MLC 64 91 64 82 / 10 0 10 30 BVO 58 87 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 61 85 60 83 / 20 0 0 10 BYV 61 84 60 84 / 20 0 0 10 MKO 63 87 62 83 / 10 0 0 20 MIO 59 84 60 81 / 10 0 0 10 F10 62 87 62 83 / 10 0 10 20 HHW 65 90 65 83 / 10 0 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...10