Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
284 FXUS65 KVEF 161923 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1223 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures remain above normal for the next several days, with the warmest readings of the year expected tomorrow. Two approaching systems will spill a gradual cooldown, increased southwest winds, and low rain chances across our northern areas Saturday - Monday. Dry, seasonably warm, and breezy conditions anticipated next week. && .DISCUSSION...through Wednesday. The week ahead is shaping up to be relatively quiet despite the transition from ridging to troughing over the weekend. Aloft, a 500mb ridge is trying to become established over the Western US, but is being undercut by a cutoff low in the E-Pac and a shortwave moving into the PacNW. This leaves just a small nose of positive height anomalies (less than +1 sigma) extending into California and Nevada. As a result, temperatures gradually warm today and tomorrow. While 500mb heights won`t be much different tomorrow, increased winds due to the influence of the northern shortwave will enhance mixing, causing temps to peak on Friday. Chances of reaching 100 in Vegas have dropped slightly (now 30-40%), but regardless, it`s going to be the warmest day so far this year. Expecting widespread Minor to Moderate HeatRisk across the area both days, but especially on Friday. This weekend, the nose of our ridge is squished to death as the northern and southern troughs begin to converge. Temperatures will gradually cool and southwesterly breezes increase. Best chances of impactful winds looks to be on Sunday, with the latest NBM painting 50-80% probabilities of 40+ mph winds across our southwestern zones, along with the eastern foothills of the Sierra and Spring Mountains, suggesting some downslope wind potential. Ensemble guidance continues to show at least some degree of phasing between the two troughs over our area on Monday. With the combined trough overhead, winds should come down slightly, though still breezy. The cold air / forcing aloft and some residual moisture may allow isolated convection to form over the Sierra and Southern Great Basin Saturday - Monday. This is reflected in the 10-25% NBM PoPs in these areas. Farther south, moisture is forecast to be more sparse, keeping PoPs below 5%. Beyond Monday, things become a little more uncertain as questions remain on the degree of trough phasing and timing/placement of any additional shortwaves across the Western US. However, it does look like large-scale troughing will persist over the region through the week. This keeps our temps near seasonal values as breezy conditions continue. Just how warm/cool and breezy we get will be refined over the coming days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Quieter day across the region through Friday morning as any threat of convection or convection influences remain well outside of our area. Overall winds will generally remain diurnal with light northeast winds late morning and afternoon up to 7 knots, becoming light southwest after sunset. Friday will bring southerly breezes to the valley in the afternoon. Skies will be mainly clear with a few afternoon buildups over area mountains in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...High pressure building over the region will keep winds over most TAF sites under 10 knots along with any threat of convection and associated outflow boundaries outside of the forecast area. Light winds and just a few clouds around 12k feet expected through the end of the week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter