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147
FXUS62 KCAE 310948
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
548 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure will be in control through Saturday. Temperatures
will be cooler than normal into Saturday especially at night.
Surface high pressure will move offshore this weekend allowing
moisture and above normal temperatures to return to the region
through early next week. This will result in isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid week, mainly in
the afternoon and evening.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Ridging aloft continues to build into the region as we sit
sandwiched between a sharp shortwave to our west and deep
troughing off the east coast. Positioned under the strong
northerly flow on the backside of the trough to our east,
surface high pressure will steadily shift southeast into the
Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas throughout the day Friday. This will
yield a cool start with temps in the mid-50`s, and continue the
northeasterly cool- dry advection down the eastern spine of the
Appalachians into Friday evening following the backdoor front
passage early Friday morning. Clear skies will help offset some
of the advection and push temps into the mid- upper 80`s.
Another cool night expected into Saturday with some notable
radiational cooling will drop temps back into the 50`s as the
surface high center remains just to our north.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will be over the area early Saturday then shift
the the coast in the afternoon as a rather robust short wave
trough moves east of the mid Mississippi river valley. The
trough will lift northeast to the Ohio valley over the ridge.
The surface Bermuda high offshore will extend into the area with
weak southeast low-level flow. Deeper moisture remains west of
the area across the Deep South north across the Tennessee
valley. Expect Precipitable water likely less than 1 inch across
much of the area. The GFS continues to be a little faster than
other guidance spreading moisture to the east around the Bermuda
ridge. Surface dew points may be in the upper 40s at least
through early afternoon then increase by evening due to marine
flow. Models suggest increasing high thin clouds in the
afternoon spreading over the ridge in southwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will moderate a bit due to weak warm advection and
subsidence under the ridge. So, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows closer to normal in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change noted in the ensemble guidance through the period.
Upper trough over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys moves east but
de-amplifies somewhat. The deterministic GFS continues to be
more aggressive with moisture flux into the area and pops higher
than the NBM pop mean on Sunday. The models continue to focus
showers mainly west of the area where air mass is more unstable.
Stronger dynamics well to the north associated with the Ohio
Valley trough moving to the east. So will continue with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon.
Forcing for convection should remain limited through Monday with
a possible short wave ridge over the area. The deterministic
GFS appears to be an outlier on Monday/Tuesday with a strong
southern stream short wave trough approaching/deeper moisture
across the area by Tuesday. Its ensemble suggests lower pops
during this period. Ensembles in good agreement with upper
trough in the northern plains moving into the eastern CONUS mid
week. This will drive a cold front toward the southeast. Moisture
and instability should increase ahead of the front to support
scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorm. Temperatures
close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure in control today with northeast winds developing
this morning following a front pushing in from the north, 7-10
knots by early this afternoon. Some high clouds are likely
throughout much of the day with a limited cu field expected
today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend
and into early next week.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...