-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
966
FXUS62 KJAX 311050
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
650 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Calm winds across most of the area early this morning will
transition to become breezy and from the northeast by the
afternoon, as high pressure begins to build south towards the
Carolinas today. Coastal locations and NE FL will see winds
ranging from 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph at times. This
will help to the drive the Atlantic seabreeze well inland towards
the I-75 corridor. Precipitation chances will be low across most
of the area today. The likely area for any showers/storms that do
develop will likely occur along the I-75 corridor in NE FL, as the
Atlantic coast sea breeze meets up with the Gulf coast sea breeze.
The breezy NE onshore flow will help to keep coastal daytime
temperatures in the upper 80s with areas to the west of the I-95
corridor getting into the low 90s, with warmer temperatures
towards the I-75 corridor. By the evening, drier air will spread
to the rest of the area, with any overnight showers unlikely.
Temperatures during the overnight hours into Saturday will dip
into the lower 70s across inland locations, with coastal locations
ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Anomalously dry airmass remains established through the weekend as
surface high pressure to the northeast gradually builds toward
Bermuda. Saturday will be rain free as moisture in the upper levels
enters from the west bringing bouts of mid and upper clouds with a
passing shortwave. In the low levels, some gradual moistening will
take place amid onshore flow. That moistening along with rebounding
temperatures may be enough to ignite widely scattered showers well
inland where convergence will be sufficient along the pinned Gulf
breeze Sunday afternoon.

Saturday will be the cooler of the two days this weekend with highs
in the low to mid 80s along the coast and mid 80s to around 90
inland. As flow trends a little to the south, temps will climb a few
degrees higher on Sunday. The next few mornings will be very
pleasant as low temps fall into the 60s inland. Coastal locations
will read in the low 70s due to the prevailing onshore flow.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Through most of next week, a fairly weak synoptic flow regime will
allow afternoon sea breezes to develop and push inland from the Gulf
and Atlantic. Deep layer moisture will begin to push in from the
west throughout next week and fuel diurnal convection each day along
the sea breezes and their interaction. Long-range ensembles
signaling a steady increase in daytime instability as afternoon high
temps climb toward the mid 90s by the end of next week, which should
be sufficient for isolated to scattered afternoon t`storms.

That said, the forecast uncertainty takes a large jump as spread
widens from Wednesday onward; guidance continues to struggle with
the depth, amplitude, and progressiveness of the next upper trough.
Right now, kept the forecast leaning toward the more climatological
sensible solution with a slower translation of the upper trough next
week. Thus, keeping temps above normal through the end of the week
along with daily storm chances Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Through most of next week, a fairly weak synoptic flow regime will
allow afternoon sea breezes to develop and push inland from the Gulf
and Atlantic. Deep layer moisture will begin to push in from the
west throughout next week and fuel diurnal convection each day along
the sea breezes and their interaction. Long-range ensembles
signaling a steady increase in daytime instability as afternoon high
temps climb toward the mid 90s by the end of next week, which should
be sufficient for isolated to scattered afternoon t`storms.

That said, the forecast uncertainty takes a large jump as spread
widens from Wednesday onward; guidance continues to struggle with
the depth, amplitude, and progressiveness of the next upper trough.
Right now, kept the forecast leaning toward the more climatological
sensible solution with a slower translation of the upper trough next
week. Thus, keeping temps above normal through the end of the week
along with daily storm chances Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Northeasterly winds will begin to pick up at TAF sites around 16Z,
with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period. Low chances of precip near the
I-75 corridor, left off of GNV TAF. Winds will begin to wane by
the 00Z, and become near calm once again during the overnight
hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Building high pressure to the northeast of our local waters will
remain through Saturday. An increase in onshore flow as the high
pressure will bring northeasterly winds to build over local waters into
the weekend. By Sunday, winds will lessen a bit as the flow shifts
to be from the southeast as high pressure moves southward to our
area. Low chances of any shower or storm activity heading over
the weekend for our local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for SE GA and high end
of moderate risk for NE FL today. Surf/breakers of 2 ft will
slowly build into the 3-4 ft range by this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Established dry airmass and onshore flow will lead to
another day with below normal afternoon humidities. Critically low
humidity is generally unlikely but could occur locally across
portions of southeast GA this afternoon. Moisture will trend upward
with temperatures this weekend and through next week. Those trends
will prompt increase afternoon shower and storm chances from Monday
onward. Smoke dispersions will be elevated and locally high today
and again Saturday due to the combination of breezy easterly
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  86  73  84  73 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  89  68  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  89  72  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  93  66  90  64 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  67  91  65 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$