-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
665
FXUS61 KOKX 012347
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the area tonight and gradually drifts to
the southeast and offshore on Sunday. A weakening disturbance moves
through late Sunday night and for the first half of Monday. High
pressure remains over the area Tuesday and Wednesday before sliding
offshore Wednesday evening. A series of frontal systems then
approach the area by the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Minor update this cycle for winds given that shallow sea
breezes across Long Island are now pushing north into LI Sound
via KOKX and NYSM profiler location at Stony Brook.
Otherwise,the forecast is essentially on track.

High pressure settles over the area tonight. A dry air mass for this
time of year with dew point readings primarily in the lower half of
the 50s, so a rather comfortable night. Outlying areas will likely
not get as cool as the previous night with some air mass
modification starting to take place. The winds will be light to calm
with the high essentially directly over the region. With deep layer
ridging in place look for essentially clear skies, although some
cirrus may sneak into far western locations later in the overnight.
Lows should get down into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest
locations in the non urban areas, with mainly lower 60s across the
more metro areas.

Another pleasant day across the area on Sunday. The mid and upper
level ridge axis starts to shift overhead, and with this there
should be more in the way of high level moisture starting to
intrude, especially for western areas later in the day. Other than
some cirrus, look for a good deal of sunshine. The synoptic pressure
gradient will be quite weak, and thus earlier sea breeze development
is expected. With the high getting further offshore the synoptic
flow will have more of a southerly component, and with daytime
heating the southerly flow will increase and thus a hybrid sea
breeze should be able to penetrate further north and west for the
afternoon hours. It will still be a fairly comfortable warm day with
dew point reading remaining primarily in the 50s, with perhaps the
immediate south shore of Long Island having dew points approach 60
later in the afternoon with more of a wind directly off the ocean.
Temperatures will be very similar to what they were the previous
day, with perhaps far eastern and southern locations being a couple
of degrees cooler, especially later in the afternoon with more of a
sea breeze and wind off the water influence.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening mid level short wave starts to draw closer during the
beginning of the period. As the shortwave progresses east and over
the Appalachians it will get dampened out and lose amplitude. Look
for clouds to increase Sunday night from west to east as the mid and
upper ridge axis gets offshore. As the shortwave gets suppressed it
will have difficulty conserving vorticity and thus it undergoes some
shearing. The BUFKIT sounding essentially show the higher RH at 10-
15 kft and below, so there should not be a lot of depth the
moisture. Therefore any rain shower activity that breaks out is
expected to be rather light and intermittent late Sunday night into
Monday morning. It does appear that all of Sunday evening will be
dry across the entire area, with perhaps the first of the shower
activity getting into far western areas towards and just after
midnight. The shower activity may briefly get more coverage into the
Monday morning commute but instability does appear to be lacking
down low and in the mid levels. Thus, at this time QPF amounts look
to be under a quarter inch, and perhaps even below a tenth of an
inch.

Towards Monday afternoon the global guidance consensus does show the
middle portion of the column drying out. Thus look for some
clearing, or at least breaks in the clouds Monday afternoon and
evening. A light onshore flow however may keep stratus and low clouds
in play, especially further to the southeast. Therefore uncertainty
in the cloud coverage / sky forecast remains for later Monday into
Monday evening. Temperatures should be relatively close to normal,
perhaps a few degrees above normal for the most part for Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Seasonable high temperatures for the period.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by unsettled
weather for week`s end and into the weekend.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through late week. Mid and upper ridging centered over the
northeast to begin the period flattens to a more zonal flow by
Thursday and Friday. This is the result of a sprawling upper low
taking shape over the central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin,
slowly moving east Thursday into Friday and settling over eastern
Canada by the weekend. This will return us to a cooler and wetter
pattern toward the end of the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday
shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for
these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping
coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near
80, with low 70s for the coast.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the
aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front
approaches the area on Thursday. The front looks to remain near or
just to the north of the area into Friday as the parent low
occludes. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by
Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained
thunder in the forecast as model soundings do depict some elevated
instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the cold front
pushes through the area as the surface low heads east. Depending on
timing, another round of thunder may also be possible with any
precipitation associated with its passage.

After a brief respite possibly late Friday into early Saturday from
precipitation, additional showers are possible Saturday into Sunday
as the upper low continues to move very slowly east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast into late
Sunday, and then slowly moves east.

VFR.

Sea breezes diminish and end 01Z to 02Z. Otherwise winds will be
westerly less than 10 kt tonight, with winds light and variable
at the outlying terminals. A light W/SW wind will reestablish
tomorrow mid-morning at or less than 10 kt. During the afternoon
the flow become more southerly with sea breeze enhancement.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers late and
mainly at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible late day into the night
with showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the period. Seas on
the ocean will be 2 ft or less through Wednesday, and perhaps
getting closer to 3 ft towards Thursday. The ocean waters may
begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves late Thursday
into early Friday under enhanced southerly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels increase getting closer to mid week. Stevens
guidance shows minor flood benchmarks being approached as early
as Monday night. Thus, trends will need to be monitored in
subsequent cycles with minor coastal flooding will become more
likely for the south shore bays of Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn,
along with Western LI Sound for CT, and Westchester towards
Tuesday.

Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the
water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly
if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR
NEAR TERM...JE/DBR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...