469
FXUS61 KAKQ 020809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers late
this afternoon into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will
allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues through midweek with scattered showers and storms
possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cloudy weather lingers through the day.

- A few light showers are possible late this afternoon into tonight.

Current wx analysis depicts sfc high pressure centered over the
Outer Banks with an upper level ridge axis in place across the east
coast. Temps as of 300 AM were generally in the upper 50s to lower
60s under mostly cloudy skies. Temps aren`t expected to drop more
than a degree or two more and may actually rise as moisture advects
into the region early this morning. An upper level trough moves
towards the area today with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s and
highs in the low-mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies today. Although
the trough moves over the area this afternoon into this evening, it
weakens as it does so. As such, forcing for showers appears rather
limited amidst meager CAPE values around 100-250 J/kg (per HREF).
Therefore, expect most of the day to remain dry with a few light
showers possible mainly late this afternoon into tonight (PoPs ~30%
except ~40% across the MD Eastern Shore overnight). Any QPF would be
light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain probable. Lows
tonight will be mild in the 60s (low-mid 60s W and upper 60s to near
70F E).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Storm chances are increasing for Monday afternoon.

- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.

Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s. A
surface low forms over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough
surface convergence for scattered storms in the afternoon. CAMs have
trended higher in coverage for storms Mon afternoon. As such,
confidence has increased enough to add likely PoPs for areas
generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA
(the surface low looks to track near/along the I-64 corridor). RIC
is on the edge and may be increased to likely PoPs in future
updates. Forecast soundings show modest deep layer shear around 20-
25 kt amidst 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, allowing for slow storm motions
with RM motions of 10-15 mph. As such, expect a classic summertime
day with scattered afternoon pop-up thunderstorms across the area.
Given slow (nearly stationary) storm motions, heavy rain is possible
with any storms as well as strong winds from wet downdrafts. While
SPC and WPC don`t currently have a severe or flash flooding risk,
cannot rule out a few locally strong wind gusts and/or localized
ponding of water on roadways. Any showers/storms taper off Mon
evening.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to
push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along
this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with
lower dews. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W
through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren`t expected to
change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which
may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are
expected both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather continues midweek with scattered showers and
storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a cutoff low moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New
England from mid to late week. As the upper level low approaches, a
series of shortwaves move through, providing chances for scattered
showers and storms (mainly Wed and Thu). Both Wed and Thu have PoPs
of 40-55% with scattered afternoon storms possible both days. Wed
features a prefrontal trough and Thu features a cold front
approaching from the W as well as the aforementioned exiting
prefrontal trough. Models have trended faster with the
convection on Thu with the best chance for afternoon storms
across E portions of the FA (associated with the prefrontal
trough). The cold front itself now looks to hold off until Thu
night/early Fri with additional convection from the front
uncertain given current timing. Depending on where the front
ends up by Fri afternoon, additional storms are possible across
SE VA/NE NC. Lower PoPs exist Sat and Sun given the upper level
low potentially too close to the local area for sufficient
forcing/instability. Otherwise, seasonally warm all week with
highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s each day and lows mainly in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through the 6z taf period. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail through most of Sun with a low chance
for showers (which aren`t expected to cause flight restrictions)
late Sun into Sun night (~30% PoPs at RIC/PHF/ORF, 40% at SBY,
and 20% at ECG). Given low confidence in both timing and
coverage, have refrained from mentioning VCSH or -SHRA in the
tafs at this time. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (due to
cirrus) continue through Sun night with a potential improvement
to SCT at PHF/ORF/ECG Sun morning. CIGs lower to ~5000-6000 ft
Sun night. Winds were light S/SW <5 kt tonight. Winds become SW
5-10 kt Sun (closer to 10 kt by Sun afternoon) before becoming
light and variable Sun night.

Chances for scattered showers and storms are increasing Mon
afternoon into Mon evening with VIS restrictions possible. Tue
looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, unsettled
weather returns on Wed/Thu with additional chances for
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

-An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region to
start the new week.

High pressure continues to shift offshore early this morning. As a
result, south/southwesterly winds have picked up in speed slightly
to 14-17kt with gusts up to 20kt. Based on trends and hi-res
guidance, this will persist until mid-morning before subsiding.
Still expecting conditions to remain below SCA thresholds across the
area, though can`t rule out a few spots briefly bumping to 18-20kt
sustained. Otherwise, winds will be southwesterly during the day
before becoming more southerly in the late evening/overnight. As the
shortwave passes through during this timeframe, there could be
another brief, spotty uptick in wind speeds to 15-20kt, especially
across the coastal waters. Again, sub-SCA conditions are expected.
Additionally, rain chances will push in from the west this afternoon
with scattered showers and storms being possible as the shortwave
slowly crosses the region. It appears that Monday will have a
slightly better chance of showers and storms as the shortwave
lingers before pushing offshore. These storms will be capable of
producing strong, erratic wind gusts over the local waters. Moisture
will remain in place through at least mid-week as a warm front
gradually lifts northward, so rain and storm chances remain in the
forecast each day.

With generally benign marine conditions outside of any
thunderstorms, seas are expected to remain at 2-3ft through mid-
week. Waves in the Bay will fluctuate between 1 and 2 ft.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches today
and Monday. The flow looks to become onshore by Tuesday, which could
potentially create some nuisance coastal flooding in spots. We will
continue to monitor these trends.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP