964
FXUS64 KAMA 291946
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this
evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and
storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms
already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow
moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains.
There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that
will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight.
Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage
of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has
now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast
Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east
tomorrow morning.

Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on
Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery
for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles
early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start
off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles
and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal
into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms
form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be
challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher
LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and
better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as
the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will
significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not
completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the
area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance
for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles
Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each
day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain
will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for
excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with
lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s
storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a
ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday
temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas
given the high pressure over the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sits through at
least 03z tonight. Thereafter we`ll see how storm coverage poses
any issues for the terminals. VCSH has been noted for the times
that storms may impact the terminals. Overall, coverage is still
the question as there may just be some isolated storms that
manage to avoid the terminals. Would expect as we get to the
00z/06z TAF issuance, there will be better confidence on storms
and timing of impacts. Winds overall will be out of the south in
the 10-15kt range. Additionally, cigs will likely fall to BKN
3-5kft agl after 03z tonight.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                80  61  86  58 /  30  40  50  70
Beaver OK                  85  62  84  57 /  20  50  50  90
Boise City OK              82  58  86  54 /  30  50  60  60
Borger TX                  85  64  89  60 /  30  40  50  80
Boys Ranch TX              84  62  91  59 /  30  40  50  60
Canyon TX                  80  61  87  57 /  30  40  40  60
Clarendon TX               81  61  81  59 /  40  50  50  80
Dalhart TX                 82  58  87  53 /  30  30  50  60
Guymon OK                  80  60  86  56 /  30  50  60  80
Hereford TX                82  61  91  57 /  30  30  30  50
Lipscomb TX                84  63  84  60 /  30  50  70  90
Pampa TX                   82  62  84  59 /  30  40  50  80
Shamrock TX                85  62  82  59 /  40  50  60  90
Wellington TX              84  63  82  60 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89