503
FXUS61 KBGM 221832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. This front is slow to move through and
will support additional showers and storms on Thursday. There
will be a brief break Friday before the next system brings
another round of showers and storms to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update...

Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon with Syracuse
already at 90s. Before showers and storms make their way into
the region, expect temperatures to climb at least a couple more
degrees this afternoon. Some pop up thunderstorms have been
observed in our region but they have been brief. We continue to
monitor a line of storms just to our west that has had some
severe reports with.

11 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes. First,
temperatures at most locations are running a degree or two
warmer than forecasted, so temperatures were bumped up using a
blend of the previous forecast and short-range guidance. The
highs were bumped up as well though it may not be the last time
we have to do that thanks to the early clear skies today. PoPs
were also adjusted slightly, mainly to pull back PoPs based on
some of the 12z guidance. The CAMs will have to be monitored to
see how they handle the MCV that is currently moving through
Ohio. We will have to watch how that system develops today with
the potential for severe weather in our region later this
afternoon. PoP up convection will be possible by the mid to late
afternoon hours though the main line may linger behind and move
through this evening.


Only minor changes with the sunrise update, discussion below.

High pressure that has been over our region the past few days will
continue to shift further offshore and give way to an
approaching pre frontal trough. Continued light southwesterly
flow will allow for one more summer like day across the region
with highs well into the 80`s and even a few locations hitting
90. Right now we are forecasting a tie of the record high at
Binghamton of 86 with Scranton and Syracuse falling short of
record values.

Modeling is in excellent agreement that the pre frontal trough will
be a lifting agent for the development of a round of showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. We have been able to
hone in on the timing a little better compared to yesterday.
The main cluster of showers and thunderstorms should enter
portions of the Finger Lakes around 5 pm then shift into the
I-81 corridor around 7pm and then clear the region by late
evening.

We are still looking at a fairly robust environment for strong
to perhaps severe storms with steep low and mid-level lapse
rates coupled with 1,000-2,000 J/KG CAPE. Shear continues to be
modeled on the low end of the spectrum but looks sufficient
enough for the storms to organize into clusters with the
potential for small hail and gusty winds. A few storms may
become severe as well depending on how the event unfolds today.

With the eventual cold front working into the region overnight, the
possibilities for a few showers and thunderstorms don`t
completely go away. The cold front eventually checks up just
south of the region on Thursday so enough lift looks present to
keep a chance for some showers and thunderstorms across NE PA
and perhaps into the southern Tier and southern Catskills
regions. Temperatures do trend cooler after the frontal passage
with highs only getting to around 80 after a muggy start in the
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

Friday and Friday night will be a dry period as showers stay
south of the area with the front and north of the area with the
upper level low. A ridge of high pressure moves east through
the area Friday night. Humidity drops with dewpoint temperatures
falling to around 50. Skies will be mostly sunny Friday.

On Saturday clouds and pops will increase as a north to south
front moves through Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will be ahead of and with the front. The trend has been to slow
this down so many places may have a dry morning.

For temperatures lows will be in the 50s Friday night, then rise
to the mid and upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday night. High
temperatures Friday will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s then
a degree or two warmer Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 PM Update...

High pressure should build in late Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday afternoon some models have isolated showers and
thunderstorms over NEPA and the southern Catskills associated
with a stalled front near the coast.

Surface low pressure and associated fronts will move east into
the area late Sunday night into Monday evening. Again another
round of showers and thunderstorms is likely. The surface low
by Tuesday is in southeast Canada, but a large upper level
trough is over southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. The colder
air will set off mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures on Sunday again in the upper 70s and lower
80s, fall slowly to the 60s Wednesday. Lows Sunday night in the
upper 50s and lower 60s fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening.
There continues to be a chance for scattered thunderstorms
today. Tempo groups have been added and the time has been
narrowed down some. Strong wind gusts and reduced visibilities
are expected if a storm passes right over a terminal. Conditions
will then improve after storms move through. A period of MVFR or
even Fuel Alt ceilings will be possible for at least a few hours
late tonight/early Thursday morning. Conditions then improve
back to VFR shortly after sunrise.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon and evening with gusts 15 to
20 kts. Again, expected strong winds within any passing
t-storms. Winds become light and variable overnight before
settling out of the west-northwest.


Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Low chance
for showers/storms at BGM and AVP Thursday afternoon/evening.
Patchy early morning valley fog possible Friday.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Today 5/22

Avoca: 93 in 1911, forecast is 89.
Binghamton: 86 in 1975, forecast is 86.
Syracuse: 92 in 1911, forecast is 91.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BTL
CLIMATE...