Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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022 FXUS62 KCHS 290212 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1012 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Tonight: The 00Z KCHS sounding shows a drier environment compared to 24 hours ago, with a deep west-northwest flow throughout. There`s a weak inversion around 11-12K feet, and the average RH from the surface to that inversion is 60-65%. Above there it is completely dry, which is well depicted by Water Vapor satellite images. The stationary front is starting to transition into a cold front, found near the immediate coast late Tuesday. The front will push further out to sea, as strong high pressure in the Upper Mississippi Valley starts to build southeast. Skies will be mainly clear, and with winds becoming light northwest, or in some areas calm, we expect lows to get down to the lower and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s over much of the coastal counties, except lower 70s at and near the coast. These lows are right near normal for late May. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Zonal flow aloft prevails Wednesday into Thursday before an H5 shortwave dips toward the area from the north late Thursday into Friday. At the surface, troughing persists offshore as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds in from the west Wednesday and Thursday. A very weak front will cross the area Friday as the high shifts more over the Northeast and ridges down the coast. Expect dry and warm conditions to prevail Wednesday and Thursday under the strong subsidence aloft. Thursday night and Friday are less certain as modest moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front and modest lift ahead of the approaching shortwave could coincide just enough to initiate some showers and storms sometime Friday morning through afternoon. Have expanded the slight chance POPs some Friday, mainly near the coast, but overall expect moisture to be too limited for much coverage, and mainly dry conditions still on tap for Friday with temps trending closer to normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high builds in stronger Saturday and Sunday, then pushes offshore early next week as a series of weak disturbances possibly pass through. The weekend is trending drier with very limited low level moisture available, then have trended toward a more summerlike pattern for early next week, with storm chances mainly along and inland of the sea breeze following a diurnal pattern. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of climo through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 00Z Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: A stationary front meandering along our coast is finally starting to transition into a cold front, that will eventually move further offshore and away from our area. The periphery of broad continental high pressure will then build into our region. SW winds will steadily veer around to the W and then the NW with time, generally at 15 kt or less. Seas will be 2-3 ft throughout. Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns anticipated midweek through the weekend with light to moderate winds prevailing as high pressure builds in from the west through Friday, shifting over the Southeast coast for the weekend. Minimal income swell will keep seas around 2 ft or less through Friday, with seas increasing to 2-4 ft over the weekend with the introduction of medium period northeast swell. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION... MARINE...