160
FXUS63 KDLH 291735
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog early this morning, mainly from central MN into the
  Iron Range and along portions of the South Shore. Visibilities
  could dip below 1 mile at times.

- Frost Advisory along and north of the Iron Range through
  shortly after sunrise this morning. Additional frost is
  possible (30-40% chance) again tonight into early Thursday
  morning, with the best chances in parts of the Arrowhead of
  Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

- Dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening into
  Friday, with a more active weather pattern continuing into
  the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Today:

High pressure in the region and a shortwave upper-level ridge
have led to clear to mostly clear skies and light winds across
the Northland. This has led to a favorable radiational cooling
set-up. As a result, areas of fog have begun developing from
central MN into the Iron Range and across portions of the South
Shore. Visibilities will dip as low as 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times
until the fog begins to burn off shortly after sunrise, but
widespread dense fog is not expected. The clear skies and light
winds are also expected to lead to temperatures in the Iron
Range into far northern Minnesota to briefly dip into the
mid-30s from early morning until shortly after sunrise today
where a Frost Advisory is in effect through 7 AM.

After the early morning, the remainder of Wednesday will be
quiet and pleasant. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected
today, aside from a few fair weather cumulus from late morning
into the afternoon. Light southeast to east winds and high
temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s are in store for most,
though slightly cooler highs are expected for locations near
Lake Superior.

Tonight:

Clear skies and light winds again tonight into early Thursday
morning could lead to some areas of patchy frost in parts of the
Arrowhead and NW WI as temperatures there dip into the mid-upper
30s. Low temperatures outside of these locations should be
slightly warmer in the low to mid 40s.

Thursday:

Most of Thursday will be dry, as well. Increasing winds out of
the south will begin across north-central MN tonight and then
spread across most of the Northland on Thursday with gusts over
20 mph on daytime Thursday for most locations aside from north-
central WI. High temperatures warm into the 70s (cooler near
Lake Superior) due to southerly return flow on the back side of
the departing high pressure to our east.

Thursday Evening - Friday:

A weak cold front associated with a surface and upper-level low
over northern Saskatchewan will slowly moves southeast across
the Northland from Thursday evening through Friday. The band of
precipitation will be relatively narrow along and just ahead of
the front in a small region of 1-1.25" PWATs (80-90th
percentile of climatology for late May) advecting into the
Northland. Limited instability and generally weak shear should
keep precipitation as mainly showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms, with no severe weather expected. Rainfall amounts
don`t look too substantial, mainly ranging from 0.2-0.7", with
the highest amounts in the Brainerd Lakes to NW WI. Some
localized higher amounts will be possible for locations that get
thunderstorms.

This Weekend into Next Week:

A more active weather pattern with rain showers and
thunderstorms arrives this weekend into early/mid-next week as a
more zonal flow pattern sets up aloft with embedded shortwaves
periodically moving through the Northland. There is a low-end
signal for severe weather potential in the Sunday into Monday
timeframe as a better fetch of Gulf moisture leads to increased
instability in the Northland vicinity with what looks as
potentially favorable bulk shear for organized storms (around 40
knots 0-6km shear). There will still likely be changes to the
forecast regarding this Sunday-Monday system, and effects on
moisture, shear, and forcing as a result, so forecast trends
will continue to be monitored closely.

This period will also be highlighted by a warmer pattern with
daily high temperatures across the region in the mid-70s to
low-80s, but slightly cooler near Lake Superior).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure remains
over the Great Lakes region. Daytime cumulus has developed across
much of the region today and will continue until diurnal heating
ends later this evening. South to southeast winds are expected to
become gusty tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Some patchy fog has formed along portions of the South Shore
early this morning as surface high pressure sits across the
region, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Expect this
fog to dissipate within a few hours after sunrise.

Light northerly winds early this morning turn more northeasterly
to easterly today at around 5 knots for most aside from slightly
higher in the southwest arm of the lake due to funneling of
winds. Expect daytime winds around 10 knots from Two Harbors to
the Twin Ports to Port Wing. Waves will be at or less than 1
foot. Light winds return again tonight.

Thursday will see winds turn slightly stronger out of the east
to northeast as the high pressure departs to our east. Daytime
winds of 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots are expected, though
funneling in the southwest arm could push gusts locally up to 20
knots. Waves remain less than 2 feet.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ012-
     019>021.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001>004-
     008-009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Rothstein