371
FXUS63 KDLH 261906
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
206 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through
  Tuesday over portions of the Northland. The threat for severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- Dense fog is expected tonight

- Frost is possible Tuesday and Wednesday night for portions of
  the Northland.

- A dry period will occur Wednesday and Thursday before heavy
  rain potential returns for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Todays system will cross NW WI this afternoon but latest model
runs have the heaviest precipitation largely missing us to the
south as the highest PWATS remain to our SE. This system will
ramp up the pressure gradient along Lake Superior and will
funnel a quick burst of wind and cooler temperatures inland this
afternoon. This should eventually turn into low stratus and fog
overnight as winds weaken overnight and dry air aloft allows for
good radiational cooling to help form dense fog. Issued a Dense
Fog Advisory in preparation for the strong model trends towards
this occurring especially with the busy travel weekend to allow
for better planning.

A fast-moving clipper follows for a little more rain on Monday
with instability building as CAPE values creep into the 1000
J/kg territory near the Brainerd Lakes region though with little
shear to work with any storms should be up and down as the
updrafts get squashed by the rain shafts. An upper low on
Tuesday will give more shower activity similar to Monday just
further east in NW WI.

A colder air mass settles over the region Wednesday and
Thursday with high pressure building and dry air aloft allowing
for good cooling at night. Frost is looking likely for portions
of the Arrowhead and NW WI.

Rain returns for the start of next weekend with another hefty
plume of high PWAT air jetting northward increasing the threat
for heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR until tonight when a push of cool, humid air off of Lake
Superior is progged to bring fog and low stratus in addition to
a bit gustier east winds at KDLH and perhaps KHIB while
locations away from the lake should remain VFR. An incoming
system from the west begins to bring rain to KBRD towards the
end of the TAF period. Confidence is increasing in the Lake
Superior push of poor flight conditions after 00-06Z tonight,
the timing of the onset is the biggest question remaining.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds are expected to quickly accelerate this afternoon causing
conditions hazardous to small craft. As the northeasterly winds
bring in the cool, moist lake air, there should be fog formation
overnight, so have a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect
tonight. High pressure should briefly build tomorrow before an
incoming system brings a threat for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Monday
     for MNZ012-019-020-035>038.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Monday
     for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Monday
     for LSZ121-143>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-
     145-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe