Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
306 FNUS21 KWNS 251701 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$