Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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951 FXUS64 KEPZ 310509 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1109 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Very warm afternoons will continue with some breeziness. Temperatures will climb even hotter next week. Sacramento Mountains could see a stray shower or thunderstorm on Friday with a bit higher chance on Saturday extending also into Hudspeth County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 A subtle UL trough is moving through NM today, which is keeping us dry while setting off storms to the east. It`s not doing much for our weather otherwise though it will foster a bit of a breeze today. Moisture will try and push west tonight, making it to portions of the Sacramento Mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande. It will be a shallow air mass that quickly retreats back to the east after sunrise. GFS and especially the NAM show some lingering moisture and resultant instability over the Sacs in the afternoon, so I added the mention of dry thunder. Moisture will push back west again overnight Friday into Saturday. The NAM, GFS, and Euro are more aggressive with this push, reaching to the Rio Grande. It will retreat back east, but there is a better signal for moisture and subsequent instability over eastern Otero and Hudspeth County into the afternoon. The NAM shows a ridiculous 4000 J/kg cape around 18z, dropping to around 1500 by evening. I don`t buy it as the NAM typical well overdoes moisture for this part of the country, but the GFS shows some lingering, modest instability while the Euro shunts everything east. It will be interesting to see how the CAMs depict Saturday`s forecast when they begin to forecast that far out. The NAM Nest shows convection with even a right-mover along the border of our CWA. Regardless, whatever instability remains will have about 20-30 knots of shear to work with in spite of a building ridge aloft, so some storm organization is possible should moisture remain. Another low-amplitude trough swings through our area on Sunday, which will well sweep our moisture to the east. It will also bring a minor uptick in wind. Behind that s/w sharp UL ridging will build from the south ahead of a closed low off the Pacific, which models have no clue what to do with. The ridge will allow temperatures to climb with El Paso facing a string of 100s for much of next week. The wild card is whether moisture can slip in beneath this ridge as the GFS and, much later, the Euro insists. NBM does have some slight POPs in the forecast for Day 7, Thursday. All Spring, guidance has forecast a decent moisture intrusion in the 6+ day range, only for it to never fully materialize. I would not count on the moisture too much, but the heat looks like a good bet. NBM 75th percentile has El Paso at heat advisory levels (105) for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 VMC through forecast period. WSW flow 250-280 overnight AOB 10 knots. Skies remaining clear with FEW250 by sunrise Friday morning. Similar conditions again tomorrow with SW surface flow and peak afternoon gusts to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Very dry conditions are expected to continue through the next five days with single-digit afternoon RH values. The main uncertainty is the dryline, which will make an appearance tomorrow and Saturday morning, and how far west it will move each morning. East of this boundary, expect fair to good overnight recoveries with poor recoveries to the west. This boundary is expected to retreat back east during the afternoon. The Sacramento Mountains may see enough moisture for cumulus build-ups, a few of which may produce a light shower or isolated dry lightning Friday afternoon. The dry line looks to make a more robust push Saturday morning though westward extent remains uncertain. It will retreat back east, but eastern Hudspeth and up north into the Sacramento and Capitan mountains may have enough moisture for a few thunderstorms. Dry lightning will be possible again. On Saturday, moisture will be swept well east of the area with all areas seeing single-digit min RH values and poor overnight recoveries. The good news is no significant winds are forecast. The dry line may bring some breezy to gusty easterly winds while afternoons will see westerly winds around 10 to 15 MPH. Winds near any showers or thunderstorms will also be gusty. Venting for the period will range very good to excellent in the afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 97 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 91 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 96 61 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 93 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 71 47 73 48 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 93 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 85 56 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 94 56 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 91 56 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 94 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 96 56 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 97 58 99 60 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 88 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 96 61 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 93 57 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 94 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 93 56 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 95 57 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 94 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 92 59 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 85 51 83 51 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 81 49 84 50 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 79 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 86 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 91 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 92 54 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 87 51 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 89 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 96 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 88 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 88 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 92 56 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 92 57 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 91 57 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 87 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt