783
FXUS65 KGJT 311136
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
536 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
  remain along portions of the higher terrain each afternoon
  through early next week.

- Temperatures remain above normal this weekend into early next
  week...an expanding ridge aloft next week suggests
  temperatures are likely to climb even higher by midweek.

- The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway
  with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next
  several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

The zonal flow with weak embedded disturbances continues across the
Western States with little change in the forecast. Eastern Utah and
Western Colorado will see a shortwave passing well to the north
today with weak ridging overnight and another shortwave approaching
from the west tomorrow. Mid-level moisture advecting in the zonal
pattern will will continue to feed isolated afternoon orographic
showers and thunderstorms spawned by the diurnal heating producing a
little CAPE through max heating. No appreciable precipitation will
reach the ground from these showers as there is limited moisture to
produce any rain and the lower atmosphere remains dry to evaporate
most of the rain producing gusty downbursts. Saturday should see a
slight up-tick in convection over the northern mountains with an
influx of moisture across the northern areas. Temperatures this
afternoon will generally run a few degrees above normal across the
region today, uniformly warming about five degrees tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Little to discuss in the long term period as the forecast area will
fall under a generally dry, zonal flow Sunday and Monday. As a
result, aside from a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms over
the mountains, dry and warm conditions will prevail. Highs are
expected to run around 5 degrees or so above normal.

A mid-level trough brushes the northern part of the forecast area
Monday night, but given nighttime atmospheric stability and a lack
of moisture the disturbance isn`t expected to generate showers. From
Tuesday to Thursday a ridge of high pressure builds over the West
then shifts over the Rockies. The operational ECMWF was the outlier
however, building the ridge along the West Coast and keeping it
there. Regardless, in terms of sensible weather, it doesn`t offer
much difference when compared to the other models. Chances for
afternoon showers/thunderstorms will remain low and confined to the
higher terrain in all solutions. However, model differences reduce
confidence in the temperature forecast as positioning of the ridge
will have an impact on this element. As it stands, what`s reasonable
to expect is that temperatures will be largely unchanged Tuesday and
Wednesday with readings continuing to run above normal, but still in
the 5 to 10 degrees above range. Model blends favor a jump in
temperatures for the latter part of the coming week as its members
favor ridging farther east than the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Expect VFR conditions across eastern Utah and western Colorado
for the next 24 hours. Modestly breezy westerlies winds this
afternoon will diminish to drainage flows overnight. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain may generate vicinity
outflow gusts that briefly impact TAF sites.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...DB