Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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581
UXUS97 KGJT 311307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Friday, May 31, 2024

This forecast is for Friday, May 31, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 72.8 F/22.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1084 ft/min (5.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 19052 ft MSL (14213 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 86.0 F/30.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 2000 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15962 ft MSL (11123 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 06/01..... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:50:03 / 20:33:52 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 43 min 49 sec (883 min 49 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:11:58 MDT... 72.76 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/31/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 13313 ft MSL (8474 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 19516 ft MSL (14677 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19607 ft MSL (14768 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.1
K index......................... +5.6

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.3 -71.1   270   37   19   0.6   0.3  103.8 218.9    42.3      M    M
 45000  -59.4 -74.9   255   31   16   2.1   1.1   74.6 166.2    27.4      M    M
 40000  -58.8 -73.8   275   46   24   2.8   1.5   52.4 126.3    14.7      M    M
 38000  -56.2 -69.2   265   45   23   4.9   2.7   47.5 117.6    11.9      M    M
 36000  -53.2 -63.8   270   47   24   6.2   3.4   43.4 110.1     9.3      M    M
 34000  -49.1 -56.4   270   43   22   7.9   4.3   40.9 105.7     7.8      M    M
 32000  -43.7 -46.7   270   40   21   7.3   4.0   39.2 102.6     6.8      M    M
 30000  -38.7 -37.7   260   38   20   9.6   5.3   38.1 100.6     6.1      M    M
 29000  -36.0 -32.8   255   38   20   7.7   4.2   37.8 100.0     5.9      M    M
 28000  -33.3 -27.9   255   39   20   7.8   4.3   37.5  99.6     5.8      M    M
 27000  -30.9 -23.6   260   37   19   8.4   4.6   37.0  98.6     5.4      M    M
 26000  -28.4 -19.1   265   36   19   8.6   4.7   36.4  97.6     5.0      M    M
 25000  -26.4 -15.5   265   32   17   7.3   4.0   35.2  95.4     4.1      M    M
 24000  -24.0 -11.2   255   29   15   7.0   3.9   34.6  94.2     3.6      M    M
 23000  -21.9  -7.4   265   25   13   8.4   4.6   33.6  92.5     2.9      M    M
 22000  -19.6  -3.3   265   25   13   7.3   4.0   32.8  91.1     2.3      M    M
 21000  -17.4   0.7   255   31   16   7.3   4.0   31.9  89.5     1.6      M    M
 20000  -15.2   4.6   255   34   17   7.3   4.0   31.1  87.9     0.8      M    M
 19500  -14.1   6.6   255   35   18   7.2   3.9   30.6  87.1     0.5      M    M
 19000  -13.0   8.6   255   37   19   6.1   3.3   30.1  86.3     0.1      M    M
 18500  -12.2  10.0   255   37   19   6.3   3.5   29.4  85.0    -0.6   1248  6.3
 18000  -11.3  11.7   260   36   18   6.1   3.4   28.8  83.8    -1.1   1206  6.1
 17500   -9.9  14.2   270   32   17   6.2   3.4   27.9  82.1    -2.0   1143  5.8
 17000   -9.0  15.8   280   31   16   5.9   3.2   27.3  81.1    -2.5   1102  5.6
 16500   -8.0  17.6   285   33   17   9.3   5.1   26.9  80.4    -2.9   1054  5.4
 16000   -6.6  20.1   285   30   15   9.4   5.1   26.8  80.3    -3.0    997  5.1
 15500   -5.2  22.6   285   30   15   9.4   5.2   26.7  80.1    -3.1    941  4.8
 15000   -3.8  25.2   285   29   15   9.2   5.0   26.6  79.9    -3.2    885  4.5
 14500   -2.6  27.3   285   28   15   7.5   4.1   26.4  79.5    -3.5    834  4.2
 14000   -1.4  29.5   280   23   12   7.6   4.2   26.1  78.9    -3.8    785  4.0
 13500   -0.3  31.5   285   19   10   7.6   4.2   25.7  78.3    -4.2    736  3.7
 13000    0.8  33.4   290   17    9   7.5   4.1   25.4  77.7    -4.5    687  3.5
 12500    2.0  35.6   290   14    7   8.8   4.8   25.1  77.2    -4.8    637  3.2
 12000    3.3  37.9   305   15    8   8.8   4.8   25.0  76.9    -5.0    583  3.0
 11500    4.7  40.5   310   17    9   9.6   5.3   24.9  76.9    -5.1    526  2.7
 11000    6.0  42.8   305   18    9   8.7   4.8   24.8  76.6    -5.3    472  2.4
 10500    7.3  45.1   310   15    8   8.2   4.5   24.6  76.3    -5.5    419  2.1
 10250    7.8  46.0   315   16    8   6.9   3.8   24.4  76.0    -5.7    396  2.0
 10000    8.3  46.9   320   15    8   6.9   3.8   24.2  75.6    -5.9    373  1.9
  9750    8.9  48.0   320   12    6   6.9   3.8   24.0  75.2    -6.1    350  1.8
  9500    9.4  48.9   320   13    7   6.9   3.8   23.8  74.8    -6.4    328  1.7
  9250    9.9  49.8   330   11    6   6.9   3.8   23.6  74.4    -6.6    305  1.5
  9000   10.4  50.7   340    9    5   6.9   3.8   23.3  74.0    -6.8    282  1.4
  8750   10.9  51.6   340    8    4   6.9   3.8   23.1  73.6    -7.1    259  1.3
  8500   11.4  52.5   330    6    3   6.9   3.8   22.9  73.2    -7.3    236  1.2
  8250   11.9  53.4   305    4    2   6.9   3.8   22.7  72.8    -7.6    214  1.1
  8000   12.5  54.5   260    3    1   6.8   3.7   22.4  72.4    -7.8    191  1.0
  7750   13.0  55.4   240    1    1   7.2   4.0   22.2  72.0    -8.0    168  0.9
  7500   13.5  56.3   050    1    1   7.7   4.2   22.0  71.7    -8.2    144  0.7
  7250   14.1  57.4   050    4    2   7.6   4.2   21.9  71.4    -8.4    119  0.6
  7000   14.7  58.5   055    5    3   7.6   4.2   21.7  71.1    -8.6     95  0.5
  6750   15.2  59.4   055    6    3   7.6   4.2   21.6  70.8    -8.8     71  0.4
  6500   15.8  60.4   050    5    3   7.6   4.2   21.4  70.5    -9.0     46  0.2
  6250   16.4  61.5   045    5    2   7.6   4.2   21.2  70.2    -9.2     22  0.1
  6000   16.9  62.4   040    4    2   7.7   4.2   21.1  69.9    -9.3      M    M
  5750   17.5  63.5   040    4    2   7.4   4.0   20.9  69.6    -9.5      M    M
  5500   18.0  64.4   040    4    2   8.4   4.6   20.7  69.3    -9.7      M    M
  5250   18.6  65.5   055    6    3   4.5   2.4   20.5  69.0   -10.0      M    M
  5000   18.2  64.8   065    8    4 -19.9 -10.9   19.4  66.9   -11.1      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/31/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       05/31/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +1.8        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +0.9
CINH...    -0.8    K Index... +13.2        | CINH...    -0.1    K Index... +20.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.9 -70.4  270  30 15  -0.4  -0.2 | -56.9 -70.4  265  31 16  -0.2  -0.1
 45000 -57.6 -71.7  265  37 19  -1.0  -0.5 | -57.3 -71.1  265  41 21  -0.9  -0.5
 40000 -59.0 -74.2  270  37 19  -1.5  -0.8 | -58.6 -73.5  265  44 23  -1.4  -0.8
 38000 -56.1 -69.0  265  38 20   6.1   3.4 | -55.5 -67.9  265  43 22   6.4   3.5
 36000 -52.4 -62.3  265  41 21   6.1   3.4 | -51.1 -60.0  265  42 21   6.4   3.5
 34000 -47.8 -54.0  265  41 21   7.6   4.2 | -47.3 -53.1  265  42 21   6.4   3.5
 32000 -43.2 -45.8  265  41 21   7.6   4.2 | -43.5 -46.3  265  43 22   6.4   3.5
 30000 -38.5 -37.3  265  41 21   8.2   4.5 | -39.1 -38.4  270  42 22   8.1   4.4
 29000 -36.1 -33.0  265  41 21   8.2   4.5 | -36.7 -34.1  270  41 21   8.1   4.5
 28000 -33.6 -28.5  270  41 21   8.2   4.5 | -34.3 -29.7  270  40 20   8.1   4.5
 27000 -31.3 -24.3  270  40 21   7.9   4.3 | -31.9 -25.4  270  38 19   7.7   4.2
 26000 -28.9 -20.0  270  39 20   7.9   4.3 | -29.7 -21.5  270  36 18   7.7   4.2
 25000 -26.5 -15.7  275  37 19   7.9   4.3 | -27.4 -17.3  270  33 17   7.7   4.2
 24000 -24.4 -11.9  275  36 18   6.0   3.3 | -25.1 -13.2  265  32 16   7.4   4.1
 23000 -22.6  -8.7  275  35 18   6.1   3.3 | -22.9  -9.2  265  31 16   7.5   4.1
 22000 -20.8  -5.4  275  34 18   6.1   3.4 | -20.2  -4.4  265  30 16   7.5   4.1
 21000 -18.3  -0.9  275  32 17   6.9   3.8 | -18.1  -0.6  270  29 15   7.1   3.9
 20000 -16.3   2.7  275  31 16   7.0   3.8 | -16.0   3.2  270  28 14   7.1   3.9
 19500 -15.3   4.5  275  30 15   7.0   3.8 | -14.9   5.2  270  27 14   7.1   3.9
 19000 -14.2   6.4  275  29 15   7.6   4.2 | -13.9   7.0  270  26 13   7.6   4.2
 18500 -13.1   8.4  280  28 15   7.9   4.3 | -12.7   9.1  270  25 13   7.8   4.3
 18000 -11.9  10.6  280  28 14   8.0   4.4 | -11.6  11.1  270  25 13   7.8   4.3
 17500 -10.7  12.7  285  27 14   8.7   4.8 | -10.4  13.3  270  24 12   8.2   4.5
 17000  -9.4  15.1  285  27 14   8.6   4.7 |  -9.2  15.4  270  23 12   8.2   4.5
 16500  -8.1  17.4  285  26 13   8.9   4.9 |  -8.0  17.6  270  22 12   8.2   4.5
 16000  -6.8  19.8  285  25 13   9.0   4.9 |  -6.8  19.8  270  21 11   8.2   4.5
 15500  -5.5  22.1  285  24 12   8.8   4.9 |  -5.6  21.9  265  21 11   8.3   4.6
 15000  -4.2  24.4  285  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -4.4  24.1  265  20 10   8.5   4.7
 14500  -2.9  26.8  280  22 11   8.6   4.7 |  -3.1  26.4  265  19 10   8.5   4.7
 14000  -1.6  29.1  280  20 10   8.5   4.7 |  -1.8  28.8  265  18  9   8.5   4.7
 13500  -0.3  31.5  280  18  9   8.6   4.7 |  -0.5  31.1  265  17  9   8.5   4.6
 13000   0.9  33.6  280  16  8   8.2   4.5 |   0.7  33.3  260  17  9   8.8   4.8
 12500   2.2  36.0  280  14  7   8.2   4.5 |   2.1  35.8  260  16  8   8.8   4.8
 12000   3.4  38.1  280  12  6   8.1   4.5 |   3.4  38.1  260  15  8   8.7   4.8
 11500   4.6  40.3  285  11  5   8.2   4.5 |   4.7  40.5  260  14  7   8.8   4.8
 11000   5.8  42.4  285   9  5   7.6   4.2 |   5.9  42.6  260  13  7   8.1   4.4
 10500   6.9  44.4  285   7  4   8.0   4.4 |   7.2  45.0  260  12  6   7.5   4.1
 10250   7.5  45.5  285   6  3   6.0   3.3 |   7.8  46.0  260  12  6  10.5   5.8
 10000   7.9  46.2  285   6  3   6.3   3.5 |   8.7  47.7  260  11  6  10.9   6.0
  9750   8.5  47.3  280   5  2   8.4   4.6 |   9.3  48.7  260  10  5   8.1   4.4
  9500   9.1  48.4  275   4  2   7.9   4.3 |  10.0  50.0  265  10  5   9.1   5.0
  9250   9.7  49.5  265   3  2   8.0   4.4 |  10.6  51.1  265   9  5   7.9   4.3
  9000  10.2  50.4  245   3  1   7.2   3.9 |  11.2  52.2  265   8  4   8.0   4.4
  8750  10.7  51.3  225   3  1   6.7   3.6 |  11.8  53.2  270   8  4   8.9   4.9
  8500  11.2  52.2  200   3  1   6.9   3.8 |  13.1  55.6  275   7  4   6.8   3.7
  8250  11.7  53.1  185   3  2   5.6   3.1 |  13.6  56.5  280   7  4   7.2   4.0
  8000  12.5  54.5  180   4  2   7.0   3.8 |  14.3  57.7  280   7  3  10.7   5.9
  7750  13.0  55.4  170   4  2   6.4   3.5 |  15.1  59.2  285   6  3  10.1   5.5
  7500  13.4  56.1  165   4  2   3.8   2.1 |  15.7  60.3  285   6  3   7.4   4.1
  7250  13.6  56.5  160   4  2   3.1   1.7 |  16.2  61.2  290   6  3   7.0   3.8
  7000  14.0  57.2  160   4  2   8.6   4.7 |  16.9  62.4  290   6  3  11.7   6.4
  6750  14.7  58.5  150   4  2   9.5   5.2 |  17.9  64.2  290   6  3  12.1   6.6
  6500  15.3  59.5  145   4  2   6.6   3.6 |  18.6  65.5  295   6  3   9.6   5.3
  6250  15.8  60.4  140   4  2   6.4   3.5 |  19.3  66.7  295   6  3   9.4   5.1
  6000  16.3  61.3  135   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  20.1  68.2  300   6  3  11.0   6.0
  5750  17.4  63.3  135   3  2  20.3  11.1 |  21.2  70.2  295   5  3  20.7  11.3
  5500  18.8  65.8  130   3  2  12.8   7.0 |  23.3  73.9  300   5  2  37.2  20.4
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           05/31/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       05/31/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...   +75.7    LI...       -0.3        | CAPE...   +99.2    LI...       -0.4
CINH...   -29.9    K Index... +22.8        | CINH...   -29.6    K Index... +22.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.3 -71.1  260  33 17  -0.4  -0.2 | -57.1 -70.8  265  35 18  -0.1  -0.1
 45000 -57.9 -72.2  265  41 21  -0.4  -0.2 | -57.4 -71.3  270  43 22  -0.6  -0.3
 40000 -58.4 -73.1  260  48 25  -0.8  -0.5 | -58.3 -72.9  265  50 26  -1.0  -0.6
 38000 -55.5 -67.9  265  47 24   5.9   3.3 | -55.9 -68.6  265  49 25   5.0   2.7
 36000 -51.5 -60.7  265  45 23   5.9   3.3 | -52.5 -62.5  270  46 23   5.0   2.7
 34000 -47.7 -53.9  265  44 23   6.6   3.6 | -48.5 -55.3  270  44 23   7.9   4.3
 32000 -43.7 -46.7  265  44 23   6.6   3.6 | -43.8 -46.8  265  42 22   7.9   4.3
 30000 -39.2 -38.6  270  43 22   8.3   4.6 | -39.0 -38.2  270  41 21   8.3   4.5
 29000 -36.8 -34.2  270  42 22   8.3   4.6 | -36.5 -33.7  270  39 20   8.3   4.6
 28000 -34.3 -29.7  270  42 21   8.3   4.6 | -34.0 -29.2  270  38 20   8.3   4.6
 27000 -31.9 -25.4  270  40 20   7.7   4.2 | -31.6 -24.9  270  37 19   7.9   4.3
 26000 -29.6 -21.3  270  36 19   7.7   4.2 | -29.3 -20.7  270  36 18   7.9   4.3
 25000 -27.3 -17.1  270  33 17   7.8   4.3 | -27.0 -16.6  270  34 18   7.9   4.3
 24000 -25.1 -13.2  270  31 16   7.4   4.1 | -24.7 -12.5  265  33 17   7.6   4.2
 23000 -22.3  -8.1  265  30 15   7.5   4.1 | -21.8  -7.2  260  30 16   7.7   4.2
 22000 -20.1  -4.2  260  29 15   7.4   4.1 | -19.6  -3.3  255  29 15   7.7   4.2
 21000 -17.8  -0.0  260  29 15   7.7   4.2 | -17.3   0.9  255  28 14   7.9   4.3
 20000 -15.6   3.9  255  28 15   7.7   4.2 | -15.0   5.0  250  27 14   7.9   4.3
 19500 -14.4   6.1  255  28 14   7.7   4.2 | -13.8   7.2  245  26 13   7.9   4.3
 19000 -13.3   8.1  250  28 14   8.2   4.5 | -12.7   9.1  245  26 13   8.0   4.4
 18500 -12.0  10.4  250  27 14   8.3   4.5 | -11.5  11.3  240  25 13   8.1   4.4
 18000 -10.8  12.6  250  26 13   8.3   4.6 | -10.3  13.5  240  24 12   8.2   4.5
 17500  -9.6  14.7  250  25 13   8.5   4.7 |  -9.0  15.8  240  23 12   8.6   4.7
 17000  -8.4  16.9  250  24 12   8.5   4.7 |  -7.8  18.0  240  22 11   8.6   4.7
 16500  -7.1  19.2  250  23 12   8.8   4.8 |  -6.5  20.3  240  21 11   9.0   4.9
 16000  -5.8  21.6  250  22 11   8.8   4.8 |  -5.1  22.8  240  20 10   9.0   5.0
 15500  -4.5  23.9  250  20 10   8.8   4.8 |  -3.8  25.2  245  20 10   9.1   5.0
 15000  -3.2  26.2  250  19 10   8.8   4.8 |  -2.4  27.7  245  19 10   9.2   5.1
 14500  -1.9  28.6  250  18  9   8.9   4.9 |  -1.1  30.0  245  18  9   9.2   5.1
 14000  -0.5  31.1  255  17  9   9.3   5.1 |   0.3  32.5  250  17  9   9.3   5.1
 13500   0.9  33.6  255  16  8   9.2   5.1 |   1.7  35.1  255  17  9   9.3   5.1
 13000   2.2  36.0  255  15  8   9.0   5.0 |   3.0  37.4  255  16  8   9.0   5.0
 12500   3.6  38.5  260  15  8   9.1   5.0 |   4.4  39.9  260  15  8   9.0   5.0
 12000   4.9  40.8  265  14  7   9.2   5.0 |   5.8  42.4  265  14  7   9.2   5.1
 11500   6.3  43.3  265  13  7   9.3   5.1 |   7.1  44.8  270  14  7   9.4   5.1
 11000   7.5  45.5  270  13  7   7.4   4.1 |   8.4  47.1  275  13  7   7.5   4.1
 10500   8.6  47.5  275  13  7   7.0   3.9 |   9.5  49.1  280  12  6   7.6   4.2
 10250   9.3  48.7  275  13  7  11.8   6.5 |  10.2  50.4  280  11  6  11.3   6.2
 10000  10.3  50.5  280  12  6  11.9   6.5 |  11.1  52.0  285  11  6  11.0   6.0
  9750  10.9  51.6  280  12  6   7.8   4.3 |  11.7  53.1  290  10  5   8.2   4.5
  9500  11.6  52.9  285  12  6   9.4   5.2 |  12.4  54.3  295   9  5   9.2   5.0
  9250  12.2  54.0  285  12  6   7.2   4.0 |  13.0  55.4  295   9  5   8.1   4.4
  9000  12.7  54.9  290  11  6   8.1   4.4 |  13.6  56.5  300   9  4   8.9   4.9
  8750  13.5  56.3  295  11  6  10.4   5.7 |  15.1  59.2  310   8  4  10.1   5.5
  8500  14.9  58.8  300  10  5   9.1   5.0 |  15.8  60.4  315   8  4   9.5   5.2
  8250  15.6  60.1  300  10  5   9.2   5.1 |  16.5  61.7  310   8  4   9.5   5.2
  8000  16.3  61.3  305  10  5  10.8   5.9 |  17.3  63.1  315   8  4  10.3   5.6
  7750  17.1  62.8  305   9  5  10.4   5.7 |  18.0  64.4  320   8  4  10.2   5.6
  7500  17.9  64.2  305   9  5   8.8   4.8 |  18.8  65.8  320   8  4   9.0   4.9
  7250  18.5  65.3  310  10  5   8.5   4.7 |  19.4  66.9  320   8  4   8.6   4.7
  7000  19.2  66.6  310   9  5  11.1   6.1 |  20.1  68.2  320   8  4  10.2   5.6
  6750  20.1  68.2  310   9  5  11.6   6.4 |  20.9  69.6  325   8  4  10.9   6.0
  6500  20.9  69.6  310   9  5  10.6   5.8 |  21.7  71.1  325   8  4  10.7   5.9
  6250  21.7  71.1  315   9  5  10.5   5.8 |  22.5  72.5  325   8  4  11.4   6.2
  6000  22.4  72.3  315   9  5  10.1   5.5 |  23.3  73.9  325   8  4   7.7   4.2
  5750  23.4  74.1  315   8  4  18.6  10.2 |  23.8  74.8  330   7  4   8.4   4.6
  5500  26.1  79.0  320   8  4  63.4  34.8 |  25.9  78.6  330   7  4  63.0  34.6
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613