814
FXUS63 KICT 291944
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

- Best rain chances late Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, a summer-like pattern was present
across the Plains with pulse convection developing amongst a weakly
sheared environment. Satellite reveals an expansive cumulus field
across the forecast area with zones of agitation. Expect isolated
showers/storms through sunset. With shear values near 20 kt, the
strongest updrafts may produce pea size hail and gusty winds up to
40 mph.

More-widespread convection is expected towards dawn Thursday through
the afternoon , especially west of Interstate 135, as a midlevel
shortwave trough advances across the area. Similar to today, weak
shear should limit the overall severe weather potential with the
strongest storms capable of dime size hail and 50 mph winds. Another
midlevel shortwave trough will emerge late Thursday into Friday
yielding additional rain chances. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. A pattern change may ensue towards
the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging sliding in from
the western CONUS. This would shunt precipitation chances east of
the area with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A diurnally driven cumulus field has developed across portions
of central, south central and southeast KS. To this point, CIGS
have remained VFR and should do so for the remainder of the
period. It remains to be seen the coverage of any showers/storms
this afternoon. Due to this uncertainty, have left any mention
of shra or tsra out for now. The best chance for showers/storms
arrives towards sunrise Thursday at all sites except CNU. To
address this potential have introduced a PROB30 group.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB