376
FXUS62 KILM 200149
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start
off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain
chances not returning until Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Cancelled the CFW for downtown Wilmington a little early as the
river level dropped below 5.5ft. Cloud cover continues to break
up and lift as somewhat drier air moves in from the northeast.
Wind overnight will keep fog from being a concern. No major
changes needed for evening update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening,
mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is
when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving
skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant
moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could
delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the
upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc
high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and
offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in
place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs
mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday.
Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly
sunny/clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing
through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also
aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in
place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly
stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even
keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off
to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs
averaging in the mid/upr 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low stratus has been slowly lifting and dissipating the last
few hours. This trend will continue and only MYR is reporting
MVFR ceilings. MYR should rise to VFR within the next hour and
VFR is expected at all sites overnight. There is low chance for
MVFR/IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, given low level
moisture, but the relatively short duration of night this time
of year decreases the potential. There will be too much
wind/mixing overnight for fog. Northeast winds continue Monday
as high pressure builds down the coast with VFR conditions
prevailing.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or
cig restrictions possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and
Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will
generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers
will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue.
Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther
offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming
established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than
10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft
heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC....Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III/31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MAS/31