021
FXUS63 KILX 301742
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and fair weather continues through the day Friday, with
  highs temperatures in the upper 70s.

- Rain is likely Friday night through Saturday morning (70%
  chance). Modest accumulations are likely (60% chance of
  exceeding 0.25"), but heavy rain is not anticipated (less than
  20% chance of exceeding 1").

- Additional rain chances exist early next week. At this stage,
  the severe thunderstorm potential appears low (less than 15%
  chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan late this morning
with ridging extending across Central Illinois into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Fair weather will be the result today with
mainly just some high cirrus filtering in gradually from the west
through the day. Temps are on track to warm into the mid to upper
70s this afternoon.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

It`s a quiet start to Thurs AM across the local area, as a 1024-mb
sfc high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region. In the
upper levels, a ridge axis was draped across the central Plains
and will gradually shift east over the coming days. Today will
feature light easterly winds, sunny skies, seasonably low
dewpoints (in the 40s), and temperatures in the upper 70s.

Much of the forecast through the weekend remains on track - dry
weather prevails through the daytime hours on Fri, then an
approaching shortwave leads to rain overspreading the area late
Fri night into Sat. As the timing of this wave has come into
better focus, PoPs have increased to 60-70% for Sat morning. QPF
amounts also continue to trend upwards, with a 60% chance of
exceeding 0.25", but heavy rain is unlikely, with less than a 20%
chance of exceeding 1". That system should largely push east of
the area by Sat night, resulting in mostly dry conditions on Sun.

Into early next week, the upper pattern becomes more zonal
allowing for additional disturbances to produce rain chances (60%
on Monday, then 40% on Tues & Wed). The severe storm prospects
aren`t zero next week, but the potential does appear rather low at
this point. A closed upper low/associated cold front are
responsible for the precip chances on Wed, and the upper flow is a
bit stronger with that system (better shear), so Wed could be a
day worth keeping an eye on for severe storms if sufficient
instability develops.

Aside from a cool down on Saturday due to rain/cloud cover,
temperatures will gradually warm into early next week with highs
in the mid 80s Sun-Wed. Looking out through the second week of
June, significant heat impacts appear unlikely. That`s because the
closed upper low that approaches during the middle of next week
develops into a persistent feature over the Upper Midwest into
next weekend. Locally, that will result in cyclonic
(northwesterly) flow that keeps temps cooler than normal. The CPC
8 to 14 day outlook (valid June 6-12) has a 40-50% chance of below
normal temperatures, and normal highs for that time of year are
in the low 80s.

Erwin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry
conditions throughout the forecast period, though a few cumulus
around FL050 that popped up on satellite over the past couple
hours will continue to percolate near and south of I-72 this
afternoon. Mid to high clouds will increase tonight into tomorrow,
while light and fickle winds increase and become more steadily out
of the southeast tomorrow morning, gusting over 20 kt after around
15z (10am CDT).

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$