746
FXUS64 KJAN 301455 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
955 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Local radars are showing showers and thunderstorms along/south of I-
20 and in eastern MS as a shortwave trough progresses through the
area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
throughout the day. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower
to mid 80s. Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were
made. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Today and tonight...A few isolated showers/storms are occuring this
morning over the southwestern portions of the area. Scattered storms
will continue through the day, as short wave energy continues to
move across the area. Expect any storms that develop to remain sub-
severe, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Highs today
will climb into the mid 80s for most of the area. Expect the bulk of
the thunderstorm activity to diminish through the evening, but
isolated showers/storms will continue to be possible overnight.
/15/

Friday through Thursday...

Not much change has been made to the forecast for the longterm
period. Early morning global guidance continue to highlight a 1026
mb sfc high shifting east across the eastern CONUS heading into the
next work week. At the same time, southerly flow aloft in the low
levels will help keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf
Coast and Southern Plains, as the sfc boundary continues to shift
further south towards the Florida Panhandle. Recent model consensus
continue to show two upper-level low pressure systems shifting east
out of the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes Region around
this timeframe. One of these low pressure systems will pass east of
our CWA Friday night into Saturday and the other one will pass east
of our forecast area starting around Sunday into the early part of
next week. With the moist air mass in place over our area, the
environment will support strong to isolated severe storms across
much of central MS.

No changes have been made to the severe graphic for Friday/Saturday
and the Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been maintained for much of
the forecast area. Forecast confidence regarding the exact timing of
this system is still low at the moment, however we should start to
have a better understanding of the timing of this event as
confidence start to increase. The threat for severe weather will
continue heading into Saturday. A highlighted Marginal Risk has been
introduced for much of central MS for this timeframe. In addition to
the severe potential, PWAT values up to 2.0 inches will support some
storms producing locally heavy downpours at times through the
weekend. Given current trends, a limited flash flooding graphic will
likely be introduced. Expect updates to the severe graphics as we
continue to monitor trends and forecast confidence starts to
increase. Microbursts producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail,
and heavy rain will be a possibility through the middle of next
week. Rain chances will continue through Thursday as temperatures
and moisture increase as low-level flow increase across the
southeast US bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and
storms across our CWA. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are bringing tempo MVFR conditions to
JAN/HKS/MEI this morning and this will continue over the next few
hours. The remain sites are VFR and outside any shower/thunder
activity expect sites to remain VFR through the period. Expect any
thunderstorm activity to diminish this evening, but an isolated
storm or two will be possible overnight. The winds will mainly be
light out of the east to southeast through the period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  67  88  69 /  60  10  30  30
Meridian      84  65  90  68 /  60  10  10  20
Vicksburg     85  69  87  69 /  60  20  50  40
Hattiesburg   89  67  91  71 /  30  20  20  20
Natchez       86  69  86  69 /  60  10  60  30
Greenville    86  69  87  71 /  30  30  50  60
Greenwood     85  69  88  69 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/CR/15