Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
107 FXUS62 KKEY 311433 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 KBYX radar shows a few showers streaming from east to west across the distant Straits of Florida. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows mostly fair weather cumulus throughout the Florida Keys. However, some stratocumulus are present across the distant Straits associated with the aforementioned showers due to slightly deeper low level moisture. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with the Big Pine Key RAWS already at 91 degrees this morning. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is building its way southward into Florida and the Florida Keys resulting in breezes increasing out of the northeast to east. As a result, marine platforms are observing northeast to east breezes of 10 to 15 knots with Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 12z sounding from this morning shows a rather dry profile with perhaps a weak moist layer present between 960 to 940 mb. The wind profile shows mainly east winds near 10 knots from the surface up to 800 mb. The PWAT value measured was 1.46 inches which is slightly below the median for the date which is 1.56 inches. CAPE is also decent with values near 2000 J/kg. With the fairly dry profile and no real strong lifting mechanism, no forecast changes are needed for this update. A few showers may occasionally develop through the day but not expecting there to be too much activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for Increasing Winds remain headlined across all the Florida Keys coastal waters, except the offshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory Likely Will Be Required Tonight are also headlined across all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will dive southeastward, emerging off the Mid- Atlantic coast over the weekend. This will result in freshened northeast to east breezes beginning this afternoon, lasting through much of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds from the east are expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots early this afternoon and hold near 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots this evening, then decreasing gradually after midnight. Lee convergence cloud bands of moderate cumulus have developed this morning near and lee (west) of the island chain. Isolated showers could occur along those cloud lines, and it is possible VCSH could be added to the EYW TAF later this morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in 1871, the daily record rainfall of 2.81" was recorded in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 80 88 79 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 90 80 87 79 / 20 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest