009
FXUS65 KLKN 290845
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
145 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler temperatures are forecast today across Central and
Northern Nevada due to a passing cold front through the
Intermountain West. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in Eastern Nevada by this afternoon. Afternoon highs are
projected to trend back upwards into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday and Thursday

Cooler air infiltrates the area today due to an upper disturbance
and attendant cold front making its way through the region.
Afternoon highs today are generally forecast to be in the mid to
upper 60s across Northern Nevada, with highs in the mid 70s across
Central Nevada. Breezy northwesterly winds up to 25-30 mph are
also forecast today. The breeze coupled with the significant
cooling trend will make the region feel quite cool for late May.
HREF shows limited instability this afternoon over Eastern Nevada,
which leads to a potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. HREF probabilities currently show a 10-20% chance
of thunderstorms in eastern Elko and White Pine counties. The WNW
winds would push showers and storms into Utah relatively quickly
after formation in Eastern Nevada. This activity is forecast to
end by late afternoon as meager instability quickly dwindles into
nothing. Westerly breeze will also abate overnight as pressure
gradients moderate across the state.

By Thursday, morning lows are forecast to be quite chilly, with
many areas across Elko County in particular dipping down into the
mid 30s. However, afternoon temperatures across the forecast area
will stabilize, possibly even trending upwards a degree or two
from Wednesday. Blended model guidance is showing no precip on
Thursday across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

A weak upper-level disturbance may bring a few convective clouds
across east central Nevada Friday afternoon during an otherwise
quiet weather day with light winds and temperatures rising well
into the 70s and lower 80s. Another trough and cold front enters
the region Saturday with little effect other than increased mid
and upper- level cloud cover as a dry air mass remains over the
region. Another trough passing to the north of the state will
bring increased cloud cover and some shower activity to northern
Nevada Monday but significant precipitation is not expected with
chances for wetting rains less than 20% along the NV/ID border.

Probability of warmer than normal temperatures is quite high in
the long term outlook starting midweek next week where 90s will
make a comeback across many valleys in the region after the winter
hiatus. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. With no significant
storm systems expected, winds will not be particularly strong
with gusts up to 25 mph each afternoon and light drainage winds at
night.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. A northwest wind of 10-15 knots with gusts up to
25 knots in the wake of a cold front that passed over the region
Tuesday is expected during the day Wednesday. A bit of elevated
atmospheric moisture and instability remaining over White Pine
county could spar a few after showers and thunderstorms across
eastern Elko and eastern White Pine counties but afternoon cumulus
is all that is expected at KELY and KEKO Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain
elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle
Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter
action stage later in the coming days.

Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next several days.

Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is
forecast to slowly fall below action stage later today.

$$

95/93/93