003
FXUS64 KLZK 250813
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A somewhat active weather pattern is expected through much of the
short term period as a few shortwaves push through the area. As of
early this morning...a few thunderstorms are currently pushing
through parts of the state. Showers and thunderstorms should come to
an end later this morning across northern and central Arkansas.
Continued thunderstorm activity will be possible across parts of
southern Arkansas through this afternoon.  Hail and damaging
straight-line winds are most likely with these storms.

A break in the unsettled weather is expected late Saturday into
Sunday afternoon before additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms pop-up across western Arkansas Sunday evening. These
storms will be limited in coverage but will once again pose a severe
weather threat as they push across the state Sunday evening into
early Monday morning.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rain. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Sunday morning with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be
the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is expected.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

To begin, upper NW flow will develop across the Cntrl/Nrn Plains in
response to a ridge approaching the Rockies. Surface winds will
switch to the N/NE on Monday and drier air will advect into the
state with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is expected to
last for a couple days. Rain chances will then creep back into the
forecast by mid to late week as upper level disturbances move
through background NWrly upper flow.

Temperatures should be in the 50s and 60s for lows and 70s to 80s
for highs. Dew point temperatures will fall from the mid 60s and mid
70s ahead of the front (short term) to mid 50s and lower 60s behind
the front (long term). The combination of lower temperatures and
lower dew points will help conditions feel pleasant, at least until
moisture moves back into the state by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

SHRA/TSRA will continue through part of the overnight hours
across most terminals. TEMPO groups and VCTS have been written
into TAFs to account for uncertainty in coverage. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should shift east of the area just before
daybreak. Patchy fog will be possible for terminals that clear out
and where wind calm. Mostly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
through the period with IFR conditions possible for terminals that
see heavy rain from thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  72  89  67 /  10  20  30  30
Camden AR         88  71  91  70 /  30   0  10  30
Harrison AR       83  69  88  61 /   0  30  20  10
Hot Springs AR    87  71  90  68 /  10  10  10  30
Little Rock   AR  88  74  92  72 /  20  10  20  40
Monticello AR     89  74  92  72 /  50   0  10  50
Mount Ida AR      86  71  89  66 /  10  10  10  30
Mountain Home AR  83  70  89  63 /   0  30  20  20
Newport AR        85  73  90  68 /  20  20  30  40
Pine Bluff AR     88  73  91  71 /  40   0  10  50
Russellville AR   86  71  90  66 /  10  20  10  20
Searcy AR         86  71  91  68 /  20  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      86  74  91  71 /  30  10  20  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73