984
FXUS62 KMFL 311033
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
633 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Today, a weakening upper flow and the eastward departure of the
upper-level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters will be
observed. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will
occur further westward, primarily in the southwestern coastal and
interior regions. While storm activity will be suppressed compared
to earlier in the week, it will still bring potential impacts,
including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized
flooding. Afternoon high temperatures for the remainder of the
week will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest
temperatures expected in the western parts of the region. The
eastern metro area will remain below heat advisory criteria, with
apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will
continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a
backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will
maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze
from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA.
Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast
at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and
southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic
regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong
pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior.
Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east,
leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region.
Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the
east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior.

A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into early next week across much
of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more
manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take
place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high
temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with
gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze
is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today
as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Boating conditions will remain generally benign through the end of
the week. By the weekend however, wave heights are expected to
increase over the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching 5 to 6
feet due to the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds will also
increase from the east-northeast, reaching up to 20 knots. This
will likely prompt a Small Craft Advisory beginning as early as
this evening. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers
and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds
and seas periodically.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will
increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the
Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could
develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast
winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during
each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across
interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the
coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over
the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze
boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to
locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels
over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire
conditions that will have to be monitored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  88  77 /  10  10  40  40
West Kendall     91  75  89  75 /  10  10  40  40
Opa-Locka        91  77  88  76 /  10  10  40  40
Homestead        90  78  88  77 /  10  10  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  87  77 /  10  10  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  89  78  86  77 /  10  10  40  40
Pembroke Pines   93  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  40
West Palm Beach  90  77  87  75 /  10  10  30  30
Boca Raton       90  77  87  76 /  10  10  40  40
Naples           96  74  95  74 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CMF