137
FXUS62 KMLB 280211
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1011 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

It`s currently dry over east central Florida with few to scattered
mid-to-upper level clouds, mainly to the north of I-4. A mid
level trough is currently over the Deep Southeast and northern
Florida. Current temperatures are still warm, especially for this
time of night with temperatures in the low to upper 80s and are
expected to drop into the low to upper 70s overnight into the
morning hours. Mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight with
increasing cloud cover into Tuesday morning to the north of I-4
ahead of the approaching shortwave. A slim chance of showers
(PoPs~ 15%) is forecast into early Tuesday morning along the
Treasure Coast. West winds well inland and southeast winds to the
east will become light overnight from the west-southwest at around
5-8mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected
overnight. A shortwave will approach the waters into Tuesday
morning. Isolated showers are possible (PoPs ~ 20%) well ahead of
the trough into early Tuesday, mainly offshore. West to southwest
winds at around 10-15kts offshore (20-60nm), as well as over the
nearshore Treasure Coast waters are forecast with 5-10kts over the
nearshore Volusia and Brevard county waters. Seas are forecast to
build to 1-3ft.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
  90s and heat indices 100 to 105+ on Tuesday

- Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the
  afternoon on Tuesday

- Daytime rain showers and isolated storms persist from mid week
  into next weekend

Now-Tonight...Dry conditions and plenty of sunshine have allowed
temperatures to climb into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon.
In fact, Melbourne and Fort Pierce have both unofficially broken
their daily high temperature records. Heat indices are peaking in
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, especially along the coast,
where the east coast sea breeze has formed and is beginning to
trek westward. Continue to practice heat safety by staying
hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade or air
conditioning. Temperatures will remain warm into the evening,
falling back into the 80s by 9 PM. Additionally, an isolated
shower or storm cannot be ruled out around Lake Okeechobee or the
Treasure Coast as the sea breeze moves inland through the evening.

Weak high pressure will continue to break down overnight as a mid
level trough swings into north Florida. Temperatures around
daybreak Tuesday are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s with
very similar dew points.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...As a mid level trough and attendant energy
drops south across the FL Peninsula Tuesday morning, a weak
surface cold front is also expected to stall near or just north of
our forecast area. Out ahead of these features, temperatures will
quickly warm into the 80s/90s with modeled PW around 1.6-1.7".
Forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates, followed
by modest mid-level lapse rates and 500mb temps around -9C. The
east coast sea breeze may be delayed into the afternoon by
persistent westerlies but will provide an additional focus for
shower and storm activity. A smattering of showers and storms are
outlined by a number of CAMs, though QPF output is light from most
model sources. Reasonable uncertainty remains regarding storm
coverage, so for now, PoPs were kept to around 30-40 percent
areawide. Along the Treasure Coast, values near 50 percent were
included, due to slightly higher coverage expected along the sea
breeze boundary. A strong storm or two capable of gusty winds,
frequent lightning strikes, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out.
Activity will gradually wane after sunset, dissipating by mid to
late evening everywhere.

Daytime temperatures will depend on a couple of factors, namely
how early convection and the east coast breeze get going. Highs
across the Lake O and Treasure Coast region are expected to reach
the mid to upper 90s again, while locations farther north may only
top out in the low to mid 90s. Again, this is dependent on how
convection, associated clouds, and the sea breeze all take shape.
Due to the slight increase in moisture across the area, heat
indices reaching the low to mid 100s will be common, especially
from the Orlando/Titusville areas southward. Heat exhaustion is
likely with prolonged exposure, so it will be another day to stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks in shade or air conditioning to
cool down.

Wednesday-Sunday...Upper level flow stays west-northwest through
much of the week as the east coast breeze develops and pushes
inland each afternoon. Surface winds begin to turn onshore mid to
late week, as well. Afternoon temps Wednesday through Friday stay
consistent in the low to mid 90s, trending cooler into next
weekend. Daily rain chances stay on the lower end of PoP Wed-Thu
(15 to 30 percent), increasing to around 35 to 45 percent Friday
afternoon as a mid level impulse and sea breeze collision support
more showers and storms. Breezy conditions are forecast for
Saturday, as the early week stationary front across north FL
pushes south through the area. Confidence is lower regarding daily
afternoon rain chances next weekend, though for now it appears
many locations will stay dry through the better part of Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 831 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

TAFs start of with VFR conditions. A shortwave will track ESE
across Florida into TUE. VCTS begins after 15Z-17Z along and N of
I-4 and then to the S into the mid afternoon. I`ve opted to keep
TEMPO groups out for now due to greater uncertainty in CAM/MOS
guidance. Light winds overnight will increase from the WSW at
around 10kts TUE afternoon and back SE along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Tonight...SSE winds increase after sunset, especially over the
Gulf Stream, to around 15-17 kt. Isolated showers and a storm or
two are possible, though coverage is expected to increase further
during the day Tuesday. Seas generally 2-3 ft.

Tuesday-Friday...Rain and isolated storm chances increase through
the day on Tuesday ahead of an approaching, weak frontal boundary.
Winds begin westerly around 10-15 kt, veering onshore as the sea
breeze develops by the afternoon. A few storms could product gusty
winds of 30 knots or greater and frequent lightning strikes.
Outside of storms, generally favorable boating is expected with
seas 2-3 ft.

Daily rain and storm chances persist from mid week into next
weekend, perhaps with slightly greater coverage on Friday. Surface
flow remains light Wednesday, veering increasingly onshore from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds increase Friday as the
early week front sags south and pushes across the local waters
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Rest of Today...Fire sensitive to near-critical conditions
persist this afternoon (especially inland) as temperatures top
out in the mid to upper 90s with relative humidity around 30 to 35
percent. The east coast sea breeze will increase humidity values
along the coast and as it pushes inland through the evening.

Tuesday-Friday...Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday ahead of
an approaching front and in association with increased moisture.
Min RH values fall again into the upper 20s to upper 30s mid to
late week, leading to persistent fire sensitive conditions. Light
surface flow gradually veers onshore mid to late week, becoming
breezy by the first half of next weekend. Locally higher seas are
possible in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  93  72  91 /  10  30  10  10
MCO  75  94  74  96 /  10  40  10  20
MLB  75  93  74  91 /  10  30  30  20
VRB  74  95  73  91 /  10  40  40  30
LEE  75  92  73  95 /  20  40   0  10
SFB  74  95  73  95 /  10  40  10  10
ORL  76  94  75  96 /  10  40  10  20
FPR  74  95  72  92 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Fehling/Heil