864
FXUS63 KMPX 261540
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1040 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially
this afternoon when widespread rain is likely across southeast MN
and western WI.

- Quieter weather is expected by mid-week with comfortable
  temps.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The combination of dry air and a slight southward shift in the
low track has resulted in less widespread rainfall than
expected. Based on radar trends and observations, reduced PoPs
through the rest of today across southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A stationary front remains draped across north central MN early
this morning which is defined well via current NT Microphysics
imagery. Much of the southern half of MN and nearly all of
Wisconsin are beneath upper-level cloud cover which has allowed
for some insolation to our surface temperatures to remain in the
mid to upper 50s. Farther north where it is cloud free, temps
have dipped into the mid 40s and even few upper 30s. As for
rainfall, only a few sites across central MN are currently
reporting light to moderate rain rates. Drier air over much of
southern MN is likely limiting the amount of rainfall coverage
across much of the state.

Mostly cloudy skies will be slow to improve beginning across western
MN early this afternoon and then reaching near the St. Croix River
Valley this evening. An upper-level trough located over the Northern
Plains with an embedded shortwave in the mid-levels will make its
way NE. Associated with this trough is a potent low-pressure system
which produced significant severe weather across the central plains
makes its way NE. Rain and thunder are in the forecast today as
previously advertised however the track of this system favors
more of an east-northeasterly track. Thus forcing for the best
QPF scenarios have shifted into Wisconsin. For those living east
of a line from Watonwan County, MN to Rusk County, WI will have
a chance at seeing showers and some thunderstorms today. Storm
total QPF associated with this system has reduced to a couple
tenths of an inch. High temperatures will warm into the low to
mid 70s, whereas east of I-35 will reach the low to mid 60s due
to higher amounts of cloud cover.

Monday and Tuesday feature two shortwaves that eject from the same
trough over the northern plains during the course of Sunday. The
first wave reaches MN around sunrise tomorrow morning. Forcing for
showers and thunderstorms will reach its best potential mainly for
areas west of the I-35 corridor, and have maintained likely
PoPs to reflect as such. Storm total accumulation for this rain
will range from a tenth to around a half-inch for localized
areas with heavy downpours. For Tuesday not showing much to go
with for this system in terms of forcing thus anticipating not
accumulate to much. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday through the rest of the period starts out with an upper-
level ridging pattern and provides returns of a short string of
nicer days featuring a mix of clouds and sun. Temps are forecasted
to range in the 70s. Next weekend continues to look Active weather
pattern heading into next weekend. Will need to wait a few more days
before discussing impacts and amounts with this system. &&

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

BKN-OVC skies will prevail for much of this TAF duration at all
sites but precipitation will by-and-large be difficult to come
by, owing to sufficiently dry lower levels of the atmosphere,
except for potentially SE MN into W WI (thus MKT, RNH and EAU,
and possibly also MSP) during the day today. Ceilings will
likely drop into MVFR range over eastern MN into western WI late
this morning through late this afternoon into early evening.
Winds will remain generally benign, speeds 10kts or less, while
mainly from the NE.

KMSP...The only appreciable window for showers today looks to be
late this morning into early this afternoon, and should not be
overly impactful (worst-case, dropping to MVFR for both
visibility and ceiling, but more likely ceiling). SE winds at
the start will gradually back to NE and NW over the next 24-30
hrs, with speeds 10kts or less. More prevalent rain showers are
likely after sunrise Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dye
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC