436
FXUS61 KRLX 311741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work
week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Quiet weather continues as surface high pressure slowly shifts east
through Saturday afternoon. Dew points in the mountains will be a
few degrees higher than last night, so any high mountain valley
frost should be very patchy at best in cold air drainage.

Saturday will be hotter and more humid than today as southerly flow
starts to increase, but any precipitation should largely hold off
until Saturday night while the upper level ridge remains
overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from
the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the
70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50-
0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should
return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds
aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the
upper 70s expected in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather
will return across the state for the rest of the week with
summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the
surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks
like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with
highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3
of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures
should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances
should begin to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Thin cirrus will continue to transit the region through this TAF
period. Could see some patchy fog affecting EKN, and perhaps CRW/PKB
toward daybreak, but confidence is lower for the latter two.

Winds remain light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could affect CRW/PKB
Saturday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and
perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP