159
FXUS01 KWBC 301957
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 00Z Fri May 31 2024 - 00Z Sun Jun 02 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern High Plains on Thursday...

 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Friday and over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday/Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast on
Saturday...

...There are Heat Advisories over southern Texas...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Southern High
Plains will slowly move to the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Southern High Plains and stall by Friday evening, then dissipating
on Saturday. Moisture streaming northward over the Plains and a
dryline over western Texas will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains. Therefore,
the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through
Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two
inches or greater, over parts of the Southern High Plains.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Friday, the front over the Central/Southern High Plains will
create showers and severe thunderstorms over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern High Plains from Friday
through Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, a second area of severe thunderstorms will occur
over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley
from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy
rain from the moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of
Mexico over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Friday through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Saturday, the weakening front over the Central High Plains will
have enough energy to produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central High
Plains on Saturday.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.  Furthermore, the front over the
Upper Midwest will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will
jump into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin by Saturday evening.
The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Intermountain Region.

Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging over southern Texas
will aid in spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$