427
FXUS65 KABQ 280617 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1217 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

The weather pattern will be more typical of late May as we progress
through the last week of the month. Showers and storms are possible
across far eastern NM each afternoon with potential for a few severe
storms through Saturday. Canyon winds will develop in the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with gusts to 45 mph
possible on the east side of the Albuquerque metro. A few showers
may also develop over the northern mountains through the week with
gusty winds and little to no rainfall. High temperatures will be
the warmest so far this season across central and western NM with
widespread 80s and 90s. Temperatures across eastern NM will also
be very warm but vary from day to day depending on cloud cover and
the coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A ridge of high pressure building in from the west this afternoon is
forecast to remain over eastern NM tonight. Surface high pressure
centered over central CO will result in another pseudo backdoor
front/boundary that is forecast to sink southward through the state
tonight and into Tuesday morning. This boundary will result in some
light to moderate east canyon winds into the ABQ metro Tuesday
morning to near 30 kt, otherwise much of the airmass change to more
moist behind a retreating dry line will remain mostly in eastern NM.
Forecast models are in fairly good agreement with one another with
regard to the potential for a few strong to severe storms for the
far northeast and east central plains Tuesday evening. Main threat
from these storms is damaging hail. The rain cooled air from this
convection is then progged to push back westward Tuesday night,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms for the northeast
highlands in and near Mora and Las Vegas. The rain cooled air
continues its westward push late Tuesday night and into Wednesday
morning. Models continue to prog this push as the stronger of the
two with wind gusts possibly reaching wind advisory criteria. Smoke
has been relatively well behaved up through this morning, with near
surface smoke not straying very far from its source. A similar smoke
scenario is expected again tonight, with smoke settling into Capitan
and Fort Stanton by sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Shallow low level moisture will be banked up against the central mt
chain Wednesday morning with widespread low stratus over eastern NM.
Canyon winds will be tapering off thru the morning in the RGV while
low level flow veers around to the south by the afternoon. There are
considerable differences between models with respect to available
moisture, surface-based instability, shear, and lift thru Wednesday
afternoon. Positive vorticity advection will be increasing as a weak
shortwave trough approaches from the west with an associated 35 to
45 kt speed max entering northwest NM. Convective initiation may
occur as high-based activity along the central mt chain then grow
upstream across the plains into improving instability and forcing
along a sharpening dryline. Despite the marginal bulk shear with
relatively light deep-layer winds, hodographs show nice curvature
with strong veering in the boundary layer along and east of the
dryline. The more sustained updrafts may be able to support large
hail if storms actually do develop across the plains. The latest SPC
outlook has no `Marginal Risk` area across eastern NM but that may
change if better model agreement occurs. There is also potential for
whatever activity that does develop to continue well into Wednesday
night over far eastern NM with persistent low level moisture flux
and improving speed shear arriving aloft.

Models are in better agreement Thursday on a larger influx of
deep-layer dry air over NM with increasing zonal flow in the base
of an upper level trough. Conditions will trend breezier, warmer,
and very dry for much of the region as a result Thursday. Several
12Z deterministic model runs show this same forcing resulting in a
very large cluster of storms developing over OK and north TX
Thursday night. This may lead to a strong westward surge of low
level moisture back into eastern NM for Friday and Saturday. A
more active period of strong to severe storms may return during
this period for eastern NM. Central and western areas will more
likely stay breezy, warm, and very dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A northeasterly and easterly wind shift is forecast over northern
and central areas during the late night hours, and it could have
a few rogue gusts with it in places like KSAF, KAEG, and KABQ.
Meanwhile, low clouds are expected to develop over and south of
the eastern NM Caprock (where the biggest wind farm is) late
tonight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions possible
in Clovis and Portales, but probably not as far west as Fort
Sumner and Roswell. The low clouds could get into Tucumcari from
10-16Z this morning, but models keep the thicker cloud cover south
of there, so we did not have enough confidence to forecast a
ceiling in the KTCC TAF. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are then forecast over northeast NM Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity farther
south across the east central and far southeast plains, and
spottier activity farther west over the northern mountains. Some
thunderstorms over the east will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. Mesoscale models depict a strong
aggregate outflow boundary from all the storms in northeast NM
advancing swiftly west and southwestward across the eastern plains
late Tuesday afternoon and evening with wind gusts commonly in
the 35-45 kt range, probably reaching places like KSAF and KABQ
with a strong east canyon wind from late evening into the late
night hours, and KROW with a strong north wind for a few hours
during late evening. In addition, there will be a mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms in the northern mountains Tuesday afternoon, and
probably scattered to isolated virga showers. Dry microbursts in
the northern mountains will be capable of localized, brief and
erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt until sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A more typical late spring weather pattern is forecast for this
upcoming short week. The dryline is forecast to push westward into
the Rio Grande Valley during the late night and early morning. Daily
rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in far eastern NM each afternoon, moving east
into TX during the evening. These storms will likely become strong
to severe each day Tuesday through Friday with large hail as the
main threat. Stronger westerly winds along with very dry air remain
on tap for the weekend with another unseasonably cold trough dropping
into the Pacific Northwest. Critical fire weather conditions
continue to look more likely with each model run for the weekend,
primarily for central and western NM Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  88  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  84  38  84 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  46  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  41  84  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  42  85  43  85 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  83  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  49  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  40  87  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  51  91  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  77  40  77 /   0  10   0  10
Los Alamos......................  54  80  54  79 /   0  10  10  20
Pecos...........................  50  81  50  78 /   0  20  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  47  74 /   5  30  20  30
Red River.......................  37  71  37  70 /   5  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  25  72  28  71 /   0  30  20  30
Taos............................  39  81  43  81 /   0  20  10  20
Mora............................  45  78  45  75 /   0  30  20  40
Espanola........................  50  89  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  54  83  53  82 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  50  86  51  85 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  89  59  87 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  92  56  92 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  91  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  91  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  57  91  57  90 /   0   0   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  50  91  53  91 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  57  92  57  91 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  50  91  53  91 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  55  86  57  86 /   0   0   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  90  58  89 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  56  95  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  81  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  50  84  49  84 /   0   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  46  85  48  84 /   0   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  85  47  85 /   0   0  10  10
Clines Corners..................  48  81  49  77 /   0   5  20  20
Mountainair.....................  47  84  48  83 /   0   0  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  49  84  49  84 /   0   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  57  89  55  89 /   0   0  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  54  82  52  81 /   0   0  10  10
Capulin.........................  46  76  48  73 /  10  60  40  60
Raton...........................  45  81  48  78 /  10  50  20  40
Springer........................  46  83  51  78 /   0  50  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  47  80  49  75 /   0  20  30  30
Clayton.........................  53  81  54  76 /  10  50  50  40
Roy.............................  50  82  53  76 /   5  40  40  50
Conchas.........................  53  90  58  84 /   0  20  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  89  55  81 /   0  10  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  56  90  57  81 /   0  20  40  30
Clovis..........................  58  94  58  79 /   0  20  30  30
Portales........................  56  97  58  81 /   0  20  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  53  94  58  85 /   0  10  20  20
Roswell.........................  61 101  63  89 /   0   0  20  20
Picacho.........................  57  93  55  86 /   0   0  10  20
Elk.............................  55  92  52  87 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44