704
FXUS63 KABR 031510 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1010 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms
this evening through Tuesday.

- Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, reaching into
  the mid 80s west of the Missouri River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The forecast looks like it`s on track this morning. May need to
make a few tweaks to hourly pops to push off onset later this
afternoon. However, no major changes are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We continue to see some high clouds over eastern SD. These are
expected to dissipate through the morning. Temperatures around the
area are in the mid to upper 50s with light winds out of the north.

Some high pressure will pass over the region this morning. Once this
passes this afternoon, some clouds will move in west to east. Some
light showers are possible in north central SD this afternoon (20-
25% chance) spreading east during the evening (30-60%) as storm
chances return. These storms are expected to be sub-severe. Tuesday,
a cold front moves west to east across the area. This will bring 30
to 40% chances for rain moving west to east across the area through
the day. Once chances move into the James River valley, rain and
thunderstorm chances increase to around 40-60%. While instability
will exist east of the James, bulk shear isn`t collocated with the
higher CAPE values until the cold front moves into western MN. This
puts the severe threat east of our CWA.

Southerly winds will bring in some WAA today. This will cause highs
to be 5 to 10 degrees above average, rising into the upper 70s
(around and east of the Coteau) to mid 80s (central SD). A LLJ looks
to keep winds rather gusty overnight, this will help keep overnight
temps relatively high as well. Lows will be about 10 degrees above
average, especially around and east of the James River where
overnight temps will only dip into the mid 60s. As mentioned,
overnight gusts are possible, mostly west of the Missouri River, at
about 25 to 30 mph. Tuesday will also be windy, with gusts generally
around 30 mph, probably closer to 35 mph west river.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Other than a few locations of less than 20% chances of precipitation
over far northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday and mainly east
of the Missouri River Friday night, and Sunday night into Monday,
mainly dry weather will continue across the forecast area from
Tuesday night on.

By 00Z Wednesday the stacked surface to 500mb low over Saskatchewan
will have a 500mb trough extending south across the eastern Dakotas
through OK. At the surface, the cold front will be will to our east
with an area of high pressure over far south central SD into central
NE extending a ridge across much of our area. The surface ridge will
sink across NE late Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the surface
low shifts across Manitoba and brings a weaker secondary trough
across the Dakotas There could be enough lingering moisture and
instability to bring slight chances (20%) of showers and
thunderstorms to a couple of our far northeastern counties Wednesday
afternoon. A larger area of high pressure to our west will shift
overhead Thursday night, with dry weather continuing. The 500mb
ridge dominating much of the western U.S. for the latter half of the
work week will slowly near our area. There is some variability in
the overall 500mb pattern, especially as we move into Sunday/day 6
and Monday/day 7. Over 80% of the Canadian and nearly half of the
GFS ensemble members show the apex of this ridge sliding east across
MT. The remainder keep the ridge much farther west over the Pacific
Northwest. This is resulting in a 10-15 degree spread in the high
temperatures (25th to 75th percentiles) for Sunday and Monday. As a
result, confidence is low in specifics like cloud cover and
precipitation amounts/timing for this time period too.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While VFR conditions will occur most of the time, lower ceilings
and visibility at ABR and ATY through 15Z could temporarily bring
them down to LIFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF