398
FXAK69 PAFG 280907
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 AM AKDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The next couple days will see warming over most of the Interior as
temps briefly go above seasonal norms. Moderate rains will
continue to impact the Fortymile Uplands, SE Interior, and far
fringes of the E Alaska Range as easterly waves move across that
region. Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday as an easterly
wave tracks across most of the Interior, with cooler temps moving
in Thursday behind this low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a migratory easterly wave moving across the NE Interior
and into the E Brooks Range. There is a 523 dam arctic low now
over the Chukotsk Peninsula, and moving west. There is a 533 dam
upper low over the E Aleutians shifting east, and another 539 dam
upper low stationed over the Gulf of AK. Yet another easterly
shortwave trough is moving through the Yukon toward the ALCAN.
Rain showers continue over the SE Interior from Delta Junction
eastward.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in much better agreement with a pair of
easterly waves projected to move across the E Interior the next
few days. All models have shifted much faster with an easterly
wave on Wednesday, which the ECMWF yesterday first caught on to.
Now all models show this, so there is much better certainty on
timing and thunderstorm potential. A blend of models will be
favored for POPS and thunderstorms, with hi-res NAM for winds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will be much the same as the last few, with more moderate
rain showers focused over the E Alaska Range east of Delta
Junction to the SE Interior, and across the Fortymile Uplands.
Elsewhere, it will be a few degrees warmer with highs into the
upper 60s. Wednesday is warmer still except for the same area in
the SE corner of the Interior, with highs reaching back into the
70 degree range. Showers and thunderstorm chances spread across
the S Interior including around Fairbanks and those will congeal
into an area of more organized rain showers overnight as they
track across the Alaska Range from east to west. In that systems
wake will be cooler temps over the S Interior with the axis of
thunderstorm instability shifting from the White Mtns north.
Finally, heavy rain showers will come to an end over the SE
Interior and E Alaska Range by Thu.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying and warming today and Wednesday with only some isolated
showers over the Lower Yukon this afternoon and again Wednesday.
Thursday starts out dry with increasing afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the Interior, then expanding to the
Seward Peninsula and near coastal regions in the evening and
overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Continued east winds today wane as high pressure builds in.
Stratus and fog will remain for the next several days as high
pressure builds and then the flow becomes northeasterly again
Wednesday, with the possibility of stratus and fog pushing all the
way to the slopes of the Brooks Range. Rain mixed with snow will
occur this morning and early afternoon over the passes of the
Central Brooks Range including Atigun and Anaktuvuk.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is basically a repeat of what has been going on the
last several days as easterly flow aloft dominates as another
large low moves into the Gulf of AK. This means seasonal weather
with bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms over the
Interior, with general northerly winds along the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today is fairly stable with more wetting rain showers over SE
Interior over the same areas, although rains will be lighter today
than the last few days. Isolated wet thunder today is pretty much
relegated to the ALCAN border and looks very marginal...maybe a
handful of strikes at best. Temps do warm and today will have min
RH values into the upper 20s west of the Fairbanks area. Wednesday
looks even warmer with more widespread low 70s from Fairbanks
west, with isolated thunderstorm chances expanding again across
the whole S Interior, with a pocket of widely scattered
thunderstorms possible over the White Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper
Chena Basin. This will be in conjunction with a weak easterly wave
moving through, and low level steering flow from the northeast.

Thunderstorms look active again Thu, especially over the W
Interior and into the Upper Koyukuk to the Yukon Flats. It will be
more stable and cooler over the S Interior Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At Fort Yukon Monday afternoon, a river observer reported that
water levels had receded approximately one foot since Saturday
with only a few inches of water remaining over the roadway near
Liquor Store Lake. Sloughs near the airport remain just above
bankfull. The water level in Fort Yukon will crest the mid-week.
Minor flooding will continue through at least the middle of the
week, with water receding very slowly by late in the week.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next
couple of days with another half to one inch of rain over the
Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There are
no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but
remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Warning AKZ833.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher