824
FNUS71 KAKQ 222134
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Furnace Town RX Burn...Maryland Forest Service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
534 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will be approaching from the west tonight, and crossing the
region later Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible
this evening, but most likely storms will remain west of the area. Showers
and storms become more numerous Thursday afternoon and evening.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......15 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 37.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39  40  55  50  46  52  50  48  46  60  50  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....        SCH SCH
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............79  76  71  69  67  67  67  67  67  67  67  67
RH..............58  63  74  79  82  82  84  85  85  86  87  89
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.16  14  14  14  13  12  12  12  11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  12  9   9   9   9   8   7   6   5   5   5
LVORI...........1   3   4   4   5   4   5   5   6   6   6   6
ADI.............37  8   6   6   6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3
Haines index....4   5   5   4   4   3   4   4   5   4   4   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25  12  4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph decreasing to 1 to 8 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (25500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 33.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........55     60     62     65     68     73
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     30     30
Temp............66     71     76     81     84     83
RH..............92     83     70     60     55     57
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.11     11     11     11     9      12
Mix hgt (ft)....500    800    1700   2700   3900   3400
Transport wind..S 5    S 6    SW 7   SW 8   W 8    SW 3
LVORI...........6      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.............3      6      15     27     28     11
Haines index....3      4      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      4      10     19     26     9
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Lance S Carroll
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414940.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Lance.Carroll@maryland.gov