798
FXUS64 KAMA 281119 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

East and southeast winds continue to advect low level moisture into
the Panhandles.  Ongoing storms over southern Oklahoma and northern
Texas as well as the far southeast Texas Panhandle are expected to
send an outflow boundary back to the west.  Models do not agree on
how fast this outflow boundary will move.  If it moves faster and re-
enforces the cold front to our south, then the better chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon may be to our south.  If the outflow
boundary moves slower and ends up near an Amarillo to Dumas line by
mid afternoon, then thunderstorms could develop in this area by mid
to late afternoon.  If the outflow boundary moves slower it will
also give a surface low over southeast New Mexico now a chance to
move northward and be over the southwest Texas Panhandle.  This low
will provide extra convergence with this outflow boundary as it will
have a dryline trailing southward from it.  The dryline/outflow
boundary collision would likely be strong enough for thunderstorm
development.  Another round of thunderstorms are expected to move
east-southeast from northeast New Mexico late this afternoon and
this evening.  These storms would have the potential to move
northwest to southeast across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
Texas Panhandle.  Any storms that form will be capable of producing
large hail to around 2" in diameter, damaging winds to around 70 mph
and very heavy rain which could lead to flooding.  A tornado can not
be ruled out given the turning of winds with height.

On Wednesday, have lowered pops a bit, mainly in the south as the
airmass may be worked over depending on how much convection rolls
across the Panhandles this afternoon or tonight.  However, more
convection should roll this way from northeast New Mexico early in
the evening and these showers and thunderstorms will have a chance
to move across the Panhandles in association with another short
wave trough moving through the flow.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Thursday remains intriguing regarding the chances for strong to
severe thunderstorms, if conditions can come together. The
biggest downside factors as of latest 00z model trends appear to
be cloud cover across portions of the area, as well as lack of
higher 0-6km bulk shear, likely only on the order of 25-35 kts.
The largest upsides on the other hand, would be high moisture
content (60s dew pts and anomalously high PWATs), better dynamical
forcing from an embedded shortwave, and potentially strong
instability (>3000 J/kg) if/wherever cloud cover breaks. As the
shortwave passes overhead, a diffuse dryline/sfc trough looks to
set up around the central Panhandles, possibly even towards the
TX-NM border if more aggressive guidance is to be believed. Any
resulting thunderstorms Thursday afternoon-evening could become
severe with primarily a wind and large hail risk, but wouldn`t be
able to rule out a low tornado risk if better shear materializes.
While rain chances are currently highest in the east, that is
also where highest confidence in lingering cloud cover exists. And
unlike previous events, this setup actually looks to threaten a
larger portion of the CWA (not just the eastern Panhandles for a
change) with the dryline likely setting up further west. Overall
rain/storm chances are trending upwards area wide, ranging from
30-50% POPs in the west to 50-80% POPs in the east Thursday
afternoon and evening. Abundance of moisture in place along with
the possibility of additional overnight convection trailing over
previous areas of heavy rainfall would pose a risk of localized
flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms may persist Friday, perhaps pulsing up
again in the afternoon behind a weak front, but details will
hinge upon overnight-early morning activity. Saturday and/or
Sunday may also need monitoring for strong to severe storms when
ensembles agree instability could return in spades ahead of
additional minor perturbations, but capping could be a concern
along with a slew of other possible wrenches in the works. After
a weak cool front provides a brief cool down Friday, temperatures
quickly rebound to the 80s and 90s this weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Some MVFR cigs may affect the TAF sites this morning. Otherwise,
skies are expected to be VFR this afternoon until thunderstorms
develop. Thunderstorms are expected to affect all of the TAF sites
later this afternoon into this evening. MVFR conditions will be
expected with the thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be severe.
MVFR cigs will then spread back across AMA and GUY late tonight.
Winds are expected to be out of the east and southeast today and
they will pick up and get gusty this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  58  78  61 /  60  50  30  50
Beaver OK                  81  58  80  60 /  50  60  40  40
Boise City OK              83  54  79  58 /  60  70  50  30
Borger TX                  87  60  84  63 /  60  50  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              90  58  84  62 /  60  50  30  40
Canyon TX                  89  56  79  60 /  60  50  30  40
Clarendon TX               85  58  76  60 /  70  50  30  50
Dalhart TX                 86  54  81  58 /  50  60  40  40
Guymon OK                  82  56  80  59 /  50  70  40  40
Hereford TX                93  57  82  61 /  50  50  30  40
Lipscomb TX                81  59  79  62 /  50  60  40  50
Pampa TX                   83  58  78  61 /  50  50  40  50
Shamrock TX                83  59  79  61 /  60  50  50  50
Wellington TX              86  60  79  62 /  70  60  30  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...15