707
FNUS73 KAPX 230747
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Hopkins Creek Rx...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
347 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Elevated fire danger will be in place at the burn site this
afternoon. Rain-free weather with mostly sunny skies is anticipated
today. West winds will begin to increase after sunrise, reaching
sustained wind speeds mainly between 10-15 mph with wind gusts
between 20-30 mph at times later this morning into the early evening
hours. Burn location is currently expected to be on the border
between primarily near-critical RHs to the west and critical RHs to
the east. Current confidence is that combination of sunshine and
gusty winds will work to mix RHs into the mid to upper 20% range for
a several hour period today -- most likely beginning between noon-1
PM and rising above near-critical thresholds around 5-6 PM as
daytime heating lessens. RHs may mix into critical thresholds during
peak heating this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........26 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......6000-7900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1576.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   22  27  30  28  26  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  70  73  75  75  76  76
RH..............45  39  31  27  26  26  27
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..12  13  13  13  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.22  24  24  24  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 6.9 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.8
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.26  28  28  26  24  24  22
Vrate kt-ft.....1576190620732028189019151704
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........93 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph decreasing to 7 to 12 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight, then shifting
                    to the north around 5 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......6000-7500 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1174.0) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (18.0-196.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  23  21  13  11  6   4   4   4   4   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75  74  72  67  62  57  54  53  51  49  47  46
RH..............31  32  37  45  56  69  74  74  80  83  86  89
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.22  22  22  14  14  14  9   9   9   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...7.5 6.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   N
Transp wind spd.21  20  15  13  10  12  10  10  9   8   7   5
Vrate kt-ft.....15441174196 93  54  57  49  46  41  34  29  18
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........36 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the south 5 to 13
                    mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then increasing to 15 to 18 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL increasing to 5200-6000 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (14.0-498.0) increasing to
                    excellent (724.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      22     23     41     51
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............46     52     65     73     77     79
RH..............93     77     54     41     37     36
20 ft wind dir..E      E      E      SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..3      3      3      7      7      9
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      14     14     18
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    1900   4800   5900   5800
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..NE 3   E 3    SE 6   S 10   S 15   S 18
Vrate kt-ft.....14     20     114    498    875    1038
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414925.0/APX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov