Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 162347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
547 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Little overall change for the remainder of the night other than
for observed trends through 23 UTC with a weak surface ridge
axis in place across southern North Dakota.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Quiet conditions through the night. Mid/upper level moisture riding
southwest flow will continue to usher scattered clouds into the
region from the west. Though clearing to mostly sunny skies is
expected through Sunday, as a surface high moves into the region.
Nice weather is forecast for Sunday, with mild and dry conditions
and light winds. As we get into Sunday night a surface low will
begin a southward nudge into the northwest, before sweeping through
the state Monday. The proceeding warm front will make for another
mild day Monday with forecast highs in the mid/upper 40s in central
and southern locations. Forcing with this system looks to be
concentrated across the north, where the best chances for
precipitation will be. However, accumulations are expected to be
light. Mostly snow is forecast for the morning with chances for rain
in the afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are possible with this
system. There is uncertainty as to how strong winds will get. BUFKIT
soundings and the 12Z model suite are suggesting gusts between 30
and 40 mph. While model blends are only hinting at a breeze. The
challenge is determining whether or not boundary layer winds will
reach the surface. Compromised with forecast winds Monday going with
a blend of models and guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Brisk winds are expected to continue Monday night through Tuesday.
Colder air is also projected to begin a southward slide into the
state Tuesday, highlighted well within the current model suite.
Another system (with potential impacts) is slated for late Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Widespread accumulating snow will be
possible with this system, though much depends on the eventual
track. Once this system departs, very cold air is forecast to
enter into the region, bringing an extended period of below normal
temperatures to the area for the first time since our early
November cold snap. Based on long range outlooks (MJO and ensemble
runs) the colder air may linger beyond the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

MVFR stratus is expected to clear KJMS and the James River Valley
by 02-03 UTC. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast across
western and central North Dakota for the 00 UTC TAF cycle.
Westerly winds tonight will turn southwest on Sunday.




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