126
FXUS61 KBUF 031447
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build across the region, resulting in
mainly dry weather through Tuesday, although an isolated shower
or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during the afternoon hours.
Above average temperatures will prevail the first half of the
work week before a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms
later Wednesday through Thursday. The front will also usher in
cooler temperatures by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some leftover low clouds will continue to slowly mix out/burn off
through the midday hours...as high pressure will be situated over
the region. While this will nearly guarantee fair dry weather...a
late day shower cannot be ruled out inland from the lakes.

A well amplified ridge will be parked over the Lower Great Lakes
tonight through Tuesday night...while the associated area of sfc
high pressure will move to the New England coast. This scenario will
keep general subsidence over the region with only a slight chance
for a shower Tuesday afternoon away from the lakes.

Temperatures will be above normal...particularly Tuesday into mid
week when the mercury will be solidly 10 degrees above early June
standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday through Thursday will be a much different story. A
warm front will usher in deeper moisture from the Southeast,
with PWAT values reaching 1.75 inches. In addition to the
remaining warmth in the 80s, dewpoints will rise into the mid
60s with a humid day for our region. Aloft a shortwave trough
with multiple convective vort maxes will pass over our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms, first with the warm front, then an
additional line of storms within a muggy Wednesday night as a
cold front crosses the region. MUCAPE values of 1,000 to 1,500
J/Kg will maintain thunder chances, but 0-6 km bulk shear values
of 25 to 30 knots will keep severe potential low. There will be
the threat for heavy downpours within this moisture rich
airmass, with potential for training storms ahead of the cold
front Wednesday night. The 25 to 35 knots of flow aloft should
keep storms moving, with any flooding concerns arising from
training clusters of storms.

By Thursday the focus for storms will be to the east, ahead of the
cold front and still within a moisture rich environment. There is
still lacking much wind shear, thus the severe threat will be
low...with again moderate to heavy downpours being the bigger focus.
Behind the cold front an closing upper level low will rotate down
towards our region. Moist, cyclonic flow aloft will bring renewed
chance for showers, albeit much lighter now that we are behind the
axis of deeper moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A closed upper level low will drop across our region this period,
with cooler but unsettled conditions. Multiple shortwave rotating
around this upper level low, combined with steepening lapse rates
will maintain showers and thunderstorm chances each day right
through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any residual MVFR level stratus late this morning will give way to
VFR conditions.

While fog is expected to redevelop over parts of the region
tonight...resulting in localized MVFR to IFR weather...the bulk of
the region will maintain VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Chance of a few spotty
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light winds and
minimal waves into mid-week.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday with a few rounds of thunderstorms likely. West to
southwest winds will increase on the lakes behind the cold front
Thursday through Friday with choppy conditions developing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/Apffel