020
FXUS61 KCAR 021356
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
956 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds to our south through today. An area
of low pressure slowly drifts west over the southern Canadian
Maritimes tonight, followed by high pressure building down from
the northeast Monday through Wednesday. The high then slowly
slides offshore through Thursday, as a complex storm system
slowly moves across the northern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945am Update...
Dry, sunny day today. Upper level ridge axis is centered just
to our west and is inching east over our area today. This is
bringing continued warm advection, and a good amount of warm
advection had already occurred aloft in this morning`s Caribou
sounding. Based on the warming aloft, raised high temperatures a
touch (about 2F) over most of the area and we are going a
several degrees warmer than model consensus. Looking for highs
generally around 80F. Thankfully, the air is still dry with low
dewpoints, so it won`t feel too bad. Winds will be light and
generally out of the north, except shifting to the south near
the coast toward late afternoon with the sea breeze. Tried
depicting the sea breeze a bit better in the wind forecast,
which was underdone in the models yesterday especially for
coastal Hancock, and expect it to be underdone in the models
again today. Strong subsidence today should keep even any
diurnal cumulus few and far between. A bit of an increase in
high clouds from the west later, but still it will be generally
sunny.

Previous Discussion:
Clear skies remain over the forecast area this morning with high
pressure continuing to slowly build into the area. With light
winds and clear to mostly clear skies persisting through the day
today, temperatures are expected to soar above seasonal averages
for this time of the year, with highs reaching into the upper
70s over most of the forecast area, to the lower 80s in the
Bangor area.

A broad area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
begin to retrograde westward towards our region late tonight.
With a 700mb vort max swinging into the eastern half of the CWA,
there could be isolated light rain showers late tonight, with
the best chance being across Washington county. Otherwise,
partly to mostly clear skies will persist into the night tonight
with relatively light winds, though low temperatures overnight
will also be slightly warmer than average, with lows only
falling into the lower 50s across most of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Whats left of an occluded sfc low and associated upper low ovr
the Ern Maritimes will begin to move SSE back ovr the adjacent
open N Atlc. Most if not all of the remaining shwrs will likely
dissipate due to downsloping between the NB highlands and the
Ern ME/NB border by erly to mid Mon Morn. Cyclonic flow alf,
however, will allow some intermittent, but xtnsv SC cld cvr to
retrograde wwrd ovr the FA from NB Mon, with this cld cvr xpctd
to persist somewhat Mon Ngt into Tue Morn as the upper low makes
contd slow progress SE. High temps Mon Aftn and to a lesser xtnt
Tue Aftn look to be warmest ovr far NW vlys, which be near the
wrn edge of the SC cld cvr with near seasonal low temps Mon Ngt.

Skies will become mclr Tue Ngt as open ridging alf replaces
cyclonic flow alf, with this ridging holding on thru Wed with
ptly to msly sunny skies. After another ngt of seasonal ovrngt
lows Tue Ngt, Wed Aftn temps should be about 5 deg F warmer
than Tue Aftn, spcly across the N where highs should reach the
lower 80s ovr low trrn lctns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Wed Ngt into Thu, the upper ridge ovr the FA gets flattened
out as a large upper low from the Great Lks apchs. Skies will
remain fair Wed Ngt, but clds will slowly increase from WSW to
ENE across the FA durg Thu. This will likely result in inverted
SW to NE high temps by Thu Aftn, with far Nrn low trrn areas
still possibly reaching 80 deg F, with cld cvr capping highs in
the mid to upper 70s ovr the S and W.

The leading edge of shwrs from the sfc/upper low will gradually
cross from W to E across the FA beginning late Thu Aftn into the
Ovrngt hrs. The consensus of long range models keep shwrs arnd
for our Rgn Fri thru Fri Ngt as a weakening sfc occluded front
crosses the FA followed by upper lvl s/wv trofs from arnd the
large upper low as it moves into Ern Ont crossing ovr our FA.
Max PoPs reach the low likely range Fri Aftn into Fri Eve likely
being aided by a diurnal htg component. Saying this, models do
not show enough MUCAPE to mention thunder any tm from Thu Ngt
thru Fri Ngt attm. Blended model guidance conts to show chc shwr
PoPs thru Sat as the upper low ovr Ern Ont and SW QB stretches
E ovr our FA. Day tm temps will be progressively cooler Fri and
Sat but still abv normal, however, this could chg for cooler if
subsequent model runs show more organized rnfl Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue through the day today
and into the night tonight, with skies remaining SKC over most
terminals. Light and variable winds will increase slightly this
afternoon, approaching 10 kts out of the N. With the chance for
a sea breeze this afternoon, coastal terminals could see winds
briefly shift S later this afternoon. Tonight, winds will once
again become light and variable. -SHRA may move over Washington
County terminals late tonight, but conditions are expected to
remain VFR.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon - Thu...all TAF sites VFR clgs to
unlmtd VFR. Lgt N to NE winds Mon becmg lgt and vrbl Mon Ngt-Wed
Ngt, then lgt S on Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions below SCA levels with no marine fog.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd thru these ptns of the fcst
with winds/seas msly well below SCA thresholds. Kept close to
blended wv model guidance with emphasis on NWPS for fcst wv hts.
Wvs will be msly composed of two spectral groups; a short 3-5sec
group and a longer semi-swell group around 8sec.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Foisy
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...AStrauser/Foisy/VJN
Marine...AStrauser/Foisy/VJN