273
FXUS62 KCHS 281450
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1050 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall near the coast today. High pressure
will return for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated showers have dissipated, so we lowered POPs for the
next few hours. However, we`re still anticipating slight chance
POPs for a small portion of our area later this afternoon.
Otherwise, the foundation of the forecast remains solid.

Rest of Today: The cold front has pushed through our land areas
and is roughly located along the coast. This is confirmed with
NW winds and dew points dropping, at least away from the
beaches. Even though the front will stall along the coast, we`re
still expected a weak sea breeze circulation to remain pinned
to the coast later this afternoon. There may just enough
convergence and lingering moisture near/behind the sea breeze
itself to support isolated showers/tstms for a few hours this
afternoon, mainly in the upper parts of Charleston County and
far eastern Berkeley County where near term guidance shows a
small pocket of marginal 850 hPa theta-e, K-indices rising
30-35C and dewpoints pooling back into the lower 70s. Slight
chance POPs remain highlighted in this area mid-late afternoon.
Elsewhere, considerably drier air advecting in from the west and
northwest will make it very difficult for anything more than
clouds to form. Even though low- level thicknesses drop a bit
behind the front, a modest downslope flow developing downwind of
the Southern Appalachians will tend to counteract and cooling
influences. Highs look to peak in the lower 90s almost all the
way to the beaches, but lower dewpoints will make it feel a bit
less sticky and humid compared to the past few days.

Tonight: High pressure will build in from the west overnight as
a stalled front begins to push farther offshore. The gradient
between these two features will likely keep a bit of wind going
through the night, but clear skies and low dewpoints will
promote at least some degree of modest radiational cooling.
Lows will range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s
at the beaches. A northwest wind across Lake Moultrie will
likely keep areas immediately downwind of the lake (i.e. Bonneau
and Moncks Corner) a bit warmer given water temperatures are in
the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface trough develops over the region on Wednesday, before
high pressure builds Wednesday night and pushes a secondary
front offshore. High pressure remains the dominant surface
feature through late week. Aloft, broad troughing persists over
the eastern U.S., until a shortwave dives across the mid-
Atlantic and eventually shifts offshore. Not much in the way of
forcing or moisture for convection, so rain chances remain
pretty low through the period. Highs near 90 on Wednesday return
to the mid 80s for Thursday and Friday. Lows span the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure initially centered over the mid-Atlantic
will transition offshore and persist into early next week.
Aloft, ridging will shift across the Southeast on Saturday
before a series of weak disturbances possibly pass through. No
stand-out day for precip at this point, with rain chances just
in the 20-30% range. Temperatures will be within a few degrees
of climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
28/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 29/12z. There is a risk for isolated
showers/tstms to develop north of KCHS and KJZI for a few hours
this afternoon near the intersection of a weak sea breeze and a
stationary front. Right now, it appears any such convection
should remain far enough to the north of both terminals to not
cause any issues. No mention of VCTS will be included for the
12z TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Winds will back more southerly this afternoon
as a cold front stalls near the coast and a weak sea breeze
develops near the beaches. Winds will remain less than 15 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Winds will finally turn west and eventually
northwest tonight as the front finally begins to push farther
offshore. Again, speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas
2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns anticipated midweek
through the weekend. Secondary front passes through Wednesday
night with high pressure the main feature for Thursday and
beyond. Wind speeds average less than 15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet
initially build to 2-4 feet over the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...