338
ACUS48 KWNS 060902
SWOD48
SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has trended towards better agreement on the
upper pattern from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday. A series of
shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the base of a
parent upper trough over the northeast CONUS and Ontario/Quebec,
with this parent upper trough gradually shifting eastward. Upper
ridging is anticipated west of the this troughing, beginning over
the Plains and Canadian Prairies on D4/Sunday before gradually
shifting eastward. By early D6/Tuesday, general expectation is that
the upper trough will extend along the East Coast with ridging to
its west from the Mid MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes into
central/eastern Ontario and Quebec.

This evolution would place much of the stronger mid-level flow to
the north and east of the better low-level moisture, which is
expected to gradually shift south as a cold front moves through the
OH/TN Valleys and central Plains on D4/Sunday. The front will likely
continue into the Southeast on D5/Monday, while stalling across TX.
Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but given the stronger
flow will be displaced north, any severe will likely be dictated by
less predictable mesoscale factors.

Moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place over the High
Plains from D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible over
this region both of these days, but notable uncertainty regarding
storm coverage and intensity exists across the southern and central
High Plains. Greater coverage is expected across the northern High
Plains on D5/Monday when a northern-stream shortwave trough is
expected to progress through the region. Uncertain timing of this
wave and its associated cold front as well as uncertainty regarding
the moisture quality within the warm sector limit predictability.
Similar uncertainties exist on D6/Tuesday across the central Plains
and Mid/Lower MO Valley as the shortwave trough and associated front
continue eastward/southeastward.

Upper ridging will likely move into the Plains in the wake of this
northern-stream shortwave trough, with some potential for troughing
to enter the Plains during the latter half of the week. Guidance
differs with the strength and timing of these features, limiting
forecast confidence.

..Mosier.. 06/06/2024