192
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3679 (S08, L=200) was
responsible for an M1.4/1f flare at 24/2025 UTC. The region
maintained its complexity as it rotated around the W limb. A new region
of flux was observed rotating around the NE limb. Only minor changes
were
observed in the remaining spotted regions on the visible disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 25 May, with a slight
chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the flare
potential of Region 3679. A decrease to low level is likely on 26 May as
Region 3679 rotates around the W limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over 25-27 May. There is a slight chance for an S1
(Minor) or greater solar radiation storm due to the potential from
Region 3679 over 25 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The IMF of the solar wind remained mildly enhanced. Total magnetic field
strength reached 10 nT and the Bz component rotated as far south as -7
nT. Solar wind speeds averaged ~375 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over the next three
days due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements may occur on
26 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on
25-27 May due primarily to potential CH HSS effects.