Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
846 FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. An X2.8 flare occurred from what we believe is old region 3664, with peak time 07:08 UTC on May 27, was recorded by GOES-16. Associated Type II and Type IV radio emissions were observed starting at 06:59 UTC and 07:05 UTC, respectively. Ejecta is clearly evident in STEREO A imagery, however, due to the location of the flaring region any CME is not likely to have a strong Earth directed component. Region 3691 (N29E42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C7.4/Sf flare at 26/1706 UTC. The region continued to grow in number of spots and penumbral area. Newly numbered region 3693 (N06E28, Cro/beta) was quiet. The remaining numbered active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in gradual decay. New Regions 3694 (S12E38, Axx/alpha), 3695 (N27E53, Bxo/beta) and 3696 (N09E60, Hrx/alpha) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 27-29 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels over 27-29 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 5-8 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds briefly reached as high as 450ish km/s but declined to ~350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi was mostly positive. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over 27-28 May due to CH HSS influence. Additional enhancements may occur early on 27 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May. Mostly nominal conditions are likely on 29 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 27-28 May due to potential combined effects from a coronal hole and a the periphery of a passing CME. Mostly quiet levels are likely on 29 May.