Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
769 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with numerous C-class flares. The main culprits of this activity were ARs 3691 (N27E20, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 3697 (S18E69, Eho/beta-gamma). The largest flare of the period originated from AR3697 as a C8.9 at 28/1841 UTC. Region 3697 has yet to fully rotate into view, making proper classification precarious at best while 3691 was little changed. Region 3692 (S08W24, Cro/beta) exhibited decay in its trailing spots, and 3693 (N05E07, Dao/beta) continued to increase the separation between its leading and trailing groups. The remaining active regions were relatively stable and quiet. An asymmetric halo CME, first observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery at approximately 28/0524 UTC, was deemed to be a far-sided event, thus no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely reach moderate levels with a few M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) while maintaining a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong Radio Blackouts) through 31 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 30 May. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 31 May primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at or near nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged below 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi became predominantly positive after approximately 28/0607 UTC. .Forecast... An enhancement in the solar wind environment due to indirect shock arrival from the 27 May X2.8 flare event may arrive by late 29 May. The solar wind environment is expected to return to ambient-like levels over the course of 30 May and remain there through 31 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Isolated active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, are expected on 29 May with any shock arrival from the 27 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 May as any lingering shock effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated to prevail 31 May.