992
FXUS64 KEPZ 021142
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
542 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

We will see quiet weather this week, but the heat is coming. Our
high temperatures today through Tuesday will run a few degrees
above average, which will put most lowland locations close to
100. But for Wednesday through Friday, we will have high
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average, which will put
most lowland high temperatures above 100. El Paso will likely see
high temperature near or above 105 on Wednesday and Thursday. For
the end of the week, we will not be as hot and we will see a
slight chance for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Well June is the hottest month of the year for our region and it
looks like this first week of June will not disappoint. In the
short term, some moisture from the east has pushed across the Rio
Grande Valley this morning, but the westerly winds will very
quickly push the moisture back to the east by the afternoon so we
will not see any rain chances today and for the next several
days. We will continue to see high temperatures running a few
degrees above average with occasionally breezy afternoon winds.

Then starting on Wednesday an upper level ridge will begin to
build across the southwest U.S. and really start to turn on the
heat. High temperatures on Wednesday will run 5 to 7 degrees above
average. Many lowland locations will have a very good chance (60
to 80%) of seeing high temperatures above 100 degrees. By
Thursday the ridge will be centered directly over New Mexico and
that will push high temperatures even higher. El Paso will have a
good chance (60%) of seeing a high temperatures on Thursday of
105 or greater. Heat risk values on Thursday will be from Moderate
to Major across much of the area and in El Paso, almost the
entire county will see Major heat risk impacts.

For next Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will
generally stay in place, but moisture will slip into the region
from the east. At the same time a weak upper level trough will try
and push into the upper level ridge from the west. This trough
and the moisture will will combine to give us our first area wide
rain chances we have seen in months. Right now those rain chances
are not very good (only 10 to 30%) but at least it is something.
With the increased moisture, we will see our high temperatures
come down a few degrees, but most lowland locations will still be
near the triple digit mark both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We may see some
passing high clouds from time to time, but our ceilings will stay
unlimited today and tonight. Like yesterday (and the day before),
we will have light winds this morning, but by the afternoon, we
will see another round of low end gusty west winds. Those low end
wind gusts will drop off around or a little after sunset. For
Sunday night the winds will be less than 10 knots and stay out of
the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The first chances for area wide rain are in the forecast by the
end of the week. But before then, we will continue to see the next
several days with elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Min RH`s today through Wednesday will continue to run
in the single digits in the lowlands and from 10 to 20% in area
mountains. By the end of the week, some moisture will slip into
the region and we will see min RH`s of 10 to 15% in the lowlands
and 15 to 30% in area mountains. We will see a slight chance for
rain each day for Thursday through Saturday. But the main weather
story this week will be the heat. High temperatures for Wednesday
through Friday (at least) will run 5 to 10 degrees above average.
By Thursday, most lowland locations will have high temperatures
above 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            92  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               97  60  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               95  58  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  47  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    95  62  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              84  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   95  55  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                92  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       95  66  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                97  57  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  62 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  62  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             94  59  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           94  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            94  56  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    96  55  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 95  63  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                93  59  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  84  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                82  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 80  51  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  86  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                92  57  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                93  54  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             86  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   89  51  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    92  54  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               87  56  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  88  55  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  56  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  93  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           92  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice