Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
591
FNUS74 KEPZ 030130
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
730 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on June 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Near-critical fire danger on Monday as extremely dry conditions
remain in place with RH around 10% and west winds 15 to 20 mph
mid-afternoon. Smoke ventilation becoming Excellent by noon with
transport to due east. Wind direction shifting to the northwest
overnight. Very similar conditions on Tuesday, with winds speeds
slightly lighter.
Wind direction becomes less reliable Wednesday/Thursday, with
northwest flow in the morning shifting to the southwest by the
afternoon. The latter half of the week will be quite hot with
high pressure aloft. Thunderstorm chances over the Gila Region
looking more likely starting next Friday and through the weekend.
Gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning during the evening
hours will be the main threats next weekend.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph increasing to around 16
mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (118500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (155900
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........3 0 8 8 9
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 76 79 82 83
RH..............17 13 11 10 9
20 ft wind......NW 5 W 6 W 12 W 12 W 16
20 ft wind gust.10 13 18 18 22
Mix hgt (ft)....4200 8300 8300 8900 8900
Transport wind..NW 12 W 14 W 14 W 19 W 19
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46 119 119 156 156
Ventrate Cat....FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (143100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(9700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........15 15 4 10 10 24
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............81 75 68 65 65 63
RH..............9 11 15 18 18 20
20 ft wind......W 15 W 15 W 10 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8
20 ft wind gust.22 22 16 17 17 16
Mix hgt (ft)....7500 7500 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..W 20 W 20 NW 17 NW 17 NW 15 NW 15
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..143 143 11 11 10 10
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (39100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (110900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (176300
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........38 26 25 42
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............59 73 82 88
RH..............24 17 14 11
20 FT wind......NW 7G15 NW 8G17 W 9G22 W 11G24
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 3000 10600 11500
Transport wind..NW 14 NW 14 NW 12 NW 17
Haines index....5 4 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39 39 111 176
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Northeast winds around 7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415232.5/EPZ
.DELDT 06/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov