Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
381
FNUS74 KEPZ 302312
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
512 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 31.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions through at least the middle part of next week. Near
critical fire danger with min RH 6-10% each afternoon. Expecting
midday winds to prevail out of the southwest each day, generally
10 to 15 mph. Excellent smoke ventilation by the noon hour, with
transport to the ENE. Light overnight winds, generally out of the
north around 5 mph. No significant changes in day-to-day weather
until late next week (June 6-10) when monsoonal flow and a chance
for mountain thunderstorms begins. This will also help bring up
afternoon RH headed into the second week of June.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........7 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph shifting to the east
late in the morning, then shifting to the
southwest 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......13800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 12 mph shifting to the
southwest 9 to 12 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (125300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (152500
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 9 23 23 11
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 79 83 84 86
RH..............17 12 10 9 8
20 ft wind......N 6 E 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 9
20 ft wind gust.13 14 18 18 21
Mix hgt (ft)....4600 12900 12900 13800 13800
Transport wind..NE 12 S 9 S 9 SW 12 SW 12
Haines index....5 5 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..41 125 125 153 153
Ventrate Cat....FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 21
mph shifting to the north around 6 mph
overnight.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph shifting to the northwest
around 11 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (141300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(6800 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........11 11 5 3 3 2
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............84 75 68 65 63 60
RH..............7 9 12 14 16 18
20 ft wind......W 8 W 8 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 6
20 ft wind gust.21 21 15 13 13 13
Mix hgt (ft)....11800 11800 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..W 14 W 14 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..141 141 7 7 7 7
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
southwest 8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......14300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (39000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (123100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (180900
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........3 3 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............60 73 83 86
RH..............19 15 10 9
20 FT wind......N 6G13 W 5G14 SW 8G20 SW 9G21
Mix hgt (ft)....4900 4900 14000 14300
Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 SW 9 W 14
Haines index....6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39 39 123 181
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West
winds around 7 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around 90.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
Highs in the upper 80s.
.OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY JUNE 07 THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 13...
High pressure aloft will lead to temperatures slightly above
seasonal normals around the middle part of next week. Models
shift the center of the high pressure aloft eastward by the
latter half of the week, possibly allowing for a shift to
southeast winds and moisture advection. This would also promote
more normal temperatures and slight chances for mountain
thunderstorms. The risk of dry lightning would accompany any storm
chances. Fire risk would also fall with lighter winds and better
overnight RH recoveries.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415232.2/EPZ
.DELDT 05/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov