Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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948 FXUS63 KFGF 280750 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 250 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected Thursday across the region with the probability of more than 0.50" around 30% in the northern valley increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Overall forecast remains similar to much of the month of May with several chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over the next 7 days. Below normal temp regime is expected to gradually warm to closer to normal values as we move into June this weekend with highs climbing into the 70s. Model ensembles remain in good agreement with the forecast for much of the week and into the weekend. Another couple days of below normal temps, especially today as highs struggle under mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds with temps in the upper 50s and low 60s. SFC high pressure will track across the area tonight with skies clearing and winds lightening temps will cool efficiently with the favorable radiative cooling environment. With another night of lows around 40, cooler in the typically cold spots in NW MN where winds will be the weakest for much of the night. Probability of temps less than 36 were less than 2% so will refrain from any frost headlines. Wednesday will see upper level ridging initiate a south wind and warmer temps return to the area before the next round of rain comes into the area for Thursday and at least the first part of Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with a few hundred joules of ML cape will bring a band of showers with embedded thunder across the area during the day Thursday, which may linger across portions of MN zones into Friday morning. PoPs currently around 90% with this feature as its a high confidence of occurrence. As stated in the key messages, the probability of more than 0.50" is around 30% in the northern valley increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south. With the SW flow continuing there remains multiple episodes of PoPs. Ensemble guidance depicts much higher spread in a second wave Friday night into Saturday lowering pops to 20 to 30% of occurrence. Slightly higher chances with another wave at the end of the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 40 to 50% for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through 10Z across eastern ND and northwest MN, with MVFR ceilings expected (low chance for IFR) arriving northwest to southeast by 12-14Z, and expected to gradually improve by midday Tuesday with daytime heating. VFR is then expected to prevail from the afternoon into the evening. Light northerly winds (less than 10 kt) may increase to around 12kt before decreasing again at sunset Tuesday as surface high pressure continues to move through the region. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...DJR