Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
012
FNUS73 KFGF 231341
FWSFGF
Spot Forecast for Nidaros NPB...MN DNR
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
841 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.
.DISCUSSION...
Complex forecast today at your burn site in south-central Otter
Tail County. A warm front will be draped across southeast North
Dakota into west-central Minnesota today, with east-northeast
winds north of the front and southerly winds south of the front.
Southerly winds will become gusty in the 20-30 mph range this
afternoon and evening. South of the front will also feature a
period of opportunity where RH values dip in the 30-40 percent
range mid to late afternoon before potential thunderstorms
develop/move into west-central Minnesota as early as 3 PM.
Thunderstorms may be strong to severe bringing hail and/or erratic
gusty winds over 50 mph.
Confidence in today`s forecast is lowered due to uncertainties
tied to location of the warm front that will be either over your
location or in the northern portion of Otter Tail County, in
addition to timing of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening.
Should the warm front push north of your location, your site
holds a high chance of experiencing RH values in the 30-40 percent
range, best chance of occuring between 2-6PM. Around this same
time or delayed 1-2 hours, winds would increase out of the south
gusting 20-30 mph. Temperatures reaching into the 70s and winds
out of the south would indicate this is occuring.
Should the warm front be stalled over your location, winds will be
more easterly to southeasterly, with RH values likely staying
higher than 40 percent and winds lighter in magnitude less than 20
mph. Temperatures lingering in the 60s to near 70 in the 2-6PM
period would indicate this is happening.
Either scenario still features chance for showers during the
morning and early afternoon, followed by chance for thunderstorms
starting as early as 3PM, lasting into the evening. Again, there
is a chance for strong to severe storms, in addition to heavy
rainfall.
The chance for additional showers and thunderstorms continues
through tonight and Friday, with gusty winds over 30 mph Friday
afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the morning. Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 15 mph increasing to south 20
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....15200 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
to 114800 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing
to (83700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67 52 37 51 52 54 58 61
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
Temp............61 64 67 69 71 71 72 71
RH..............75 66 59 55 51 51 51 53
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.9 12 14 16 16 18 18 19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.2 4.1 5.7 6.0 5.0 4.8 3.6
Mixing wind dir.SE S S S S S S S
Mixing wind spd.10 15 20 25 25 25 25 25
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15 30 70 115 119 105 110 84
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Thunderstorms
likely in the evening. Rain showers likely
through the night. Chance of thunderstorms
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the late evening and
overnight.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the south 15
to 20 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....47700 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
to 9800 knot-ft late in the night.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........65 71 76 81 83 82
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............71 68 65 63 61 60
RH..............55 61 68 72 75 78
20 ft wind......SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 S 10
20 ft wind gust.19 18 19 20 21 21
Mix hgt (ft)....2400 700 700 900 800 1000
Mixing wind.....SE 25 S 20 S 20 S 20 S 20 S 20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..48 11 11 16 13 17
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers in
the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the
morning and early afternoon. Rain showers
likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 15 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest around 20 mph shifting to the west 25
to 30 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....15600 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
to 89800 knot-ft in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........81 78 75 70
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............59 59 60 54
RH..............83 87 84 80
20 FT wind......S 15G22 S 15G23 SW 15G23 W 15G25
Mix hgt (ft)....900 1800 3000 3200
Mixing wind.....S 20 SW 20 W 25 W 30
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 33 65 82
$$
Forecaster...CJ
Requested by...Tyler Larson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414998.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyler.k.larson@state.mn.us