441
FXUS64 KFWD 031113
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

A cluster of storms developed over Central Oklahoma a few hours
ago and is sending an outflow boundary across Southern Oklahoma
early this morning. A few storms are starting to develop on the
boundary near and east of Ardmore. We originally expected most of
the storms to develop along a cold pool, but from the MCS that is
currently over northwest Oklahoma. This early arrival of the
initial cold pool may move the timing of storms up several hours,
particularly for areas across northeast Texas. I still think the
better-organized MCS over northwest Oklahoma will be our main
trigger for storms later today and this evening. The main severe
threat today will be damaging wind gusts with a lower threat of
large hail.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

The airmass over most of North Texas remains heavily influenced
by yesterday`s storms. Both the temperature and dewpoint are in
the 60s, while areas that did not receive any storms yesterday
are in the 70s with dewpoints in the 72-76 range. This has
resulted in negligible surface-based instability despite mid-level
instability rebounding remarkably quickly. Due to this, we have
drastically lowered PoPs this morning compared to our previous
forecasts. A few storms are possible over North Texas this
morning, with the coverage of storms around 20-30%.

The warm/humid airmass over the southern portion of our forecast
area will be drawn north this morning along with a blanket of gulf
stratus. The stratus will limit heating for most of the day and
keep highs in the upper 80s for most. This is important because
there is a weak cap sitting over the region and less heating will
limit a parcel`s ability to break the cap without the help of a
focused source of ascent. It`s worth noting that the cap is
stronger west of I-35 and is weaker over East Texas. We could
see scattered warm advection showers/storms develop over the
eastern part of our area this afternoon that continue into the
evening.

Two surface boundaries are expected to be near our area later this
afternoon...an outflow boundary draped over southern Oklahoma and
a dryline to our west. Both boundaries will serve as areas for
thunderstorm development today, with an organized line of storms
expected along the outflow boundary. The CAM guidance has been
consistent with the current cluster of storms over SW Kansas being
the primary source of the outflow boundary moving into southern
Oklahoma later today. Most of the guidance brings the worst part
of this system into Arkansas, but does send the cold pool into
north Texas late in the day. Further west, thunderstorms are
expected to develop where the cold pool intersects the dryline.
For now, that appears most likely between Childress and Wichita
Falls. These storms should move E-SE and may move into Western
North Texas late in the day. Similar to the past few days, the
parameter space remains supportive of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps large hail with the strongest updrafts.

Heavy rain is expected with any storm...and since area soils are
saturated and many water retention ponds/lakes are at capacity, it
is not taking much rain to result in flash flooding.

Another round of overnight thunderstorm activity is possible
across eastern North Texas. Since this will depend on where the
boundaries reside in about 24 hours, attempting to place them is a
futile exercise at this point.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

As advertised over the last several days, the heat will take the
main headline through most of the period. But before we get a few
rain-free days, there will be additional storm chances mainly
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A disturbance in the mid-levels will
send a surface front southward with scattered storms developing
along the boundary. At this time, it appears they will impact our
area between midnight and daybreak Wednesday generally along/east
of I-35 to the northeast. Some of these storms could be strong to
marginally severe, so continue to check back for updates.
Afternoon rain chances will depend on what happens during the
morning hours, but if there`s any leftover boundary nearby we
could see additional development of storms. Still, coverage should
be very limited given the forecast warm temperatures in the mid-
levels. Temperature wise, expect highs in the low to mid 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday with a few locations across the far western
zones peaking the triple digit mark. The high humidity will result
in heat indices in the 99-108 range. Make sure to stay safe in
the heat by taking all the necessary precautions to avoid heat-
related illnesses. Take frequent breaks from the sun and drink
plenty of water!

For the rest of the period, mid-level ridging will dominate the
weather pattern. Daytime highs will be in the 90s each day with
plenty of sunshine and light winds. While some of the extended
models show another system approaching our area by Friday or
Saturday, but the bulk of the guidance keep us dry through at
least half of the weekend.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

IFR ceilings engulfed the D10 terminals a few hours ago, but a few
holes in the stratus have recently developed. We have opted to
replace the prevailing IFR group with a TEMPO for the next couple
hours. A north-moving boundary will move through and lift the
ceilings to MVFR for the remainder of the morning before lifting
to VFR after 18-20Z.

Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon, with 1 or 2
large storm complexes moving close to our forecast area today. Our
confidence regarding if one of these complexes will move into the
D10 airspace is around 30-40%, so we have still do not have on-
station TS in any TAF. Convective trends will have to be closely
monitored, as storms today will likely have strong outflow
boundaries and result in flow changes. Most of the storms should
end or move south after sunset.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  74  92  76  92 /  40  40  10  20  10
Waco                89  73  92  75  91 /  30  30  10  10  10
Paris               84  69  87  73  87 /  50  40  20  30  20
Denton              88  72  92  74  91 /  40  30  10  20  10
McKinney            86  72  90  75  89 /  50  40  10  20  10
Dallas              89  72  93  76  92 /  40  40  10  20  10
Terrell             86  72  90  74  89 /  40  40  20  20  20
Corsicana           88  74  92  76  91 /  40  40  10  10  20
Temple              89  74  93  75  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       90  72  95  75  93 /  30  20   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$