210
FXUS65 KGGW 020902
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
302 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A system and associated cold front will transition into
northeast Montana Monday through Monday night, which will bring a
widespread chance for showers, thunderstorms and wetting rain.

2) Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, marking
the start of a warm and dry pattern for the rest of the week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Another warm and mostly dry day will result after most shower and
thunderstorm activity this morning pushes east into North Dakota based
on CAMs such as NAM NEST, HRW FV3, and HRRR. They do point to
enough lingering instability for isolated redevelopment for far
NE Montana this afternoon.

Ensemble models like the GFS and ECMWF are aiding to predict a
stronger shortwave trough moving in on Monday. Although details
are being worked out regarding convection, there are minimal
ingredients for severe storms. This activity is expected to move
into ND by Tuesday morning.

A broad ridge focused southwest of Montana will lead to a drier
trend and slightly warmer than normal temperatures following
this. Rather breezy conditions out of the west to northwest will
take hold Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure fills in behind
the departing shortwave trough.

CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is medium to high (50 to 80 percent) confidence of
scattered showers and thunderstorms producing at least a tenth of
an inch of rain for those who happen to be impacted directly by a
storm. Confidence is medium (40 to 70 percent) for wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph both Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest
around the Little Rockies.

-Zanker/Stoinskers

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mostly dry weather with scattered to broken mid level
clouds is in store through 18Z Monday. Just enough instability
remains for a low (20%) chance of a brief shower both this
afternoon and Monday morning mainly north of KGGW to KSDY.

SFC WIND: Northwest at 10 to 15 knots through 00Z, then light and
variable.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow