Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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594 FXUS63 KGLD 031113 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 513 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT). - A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday), with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will transition to NW flow by mid-week.. as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners extends E and NE across the Southern Plains. Today: While early morning convection has taken a toll on the thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area.. i.e. reduced mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and a cooler post-outflow low- level airmass.. regional analyses suggest that mid-level lapse rates will rapidly recover/steepen this afternoon (replenished by an otherwise pervasive elevated mixed layer in the lee of the Rockies). This.. along with decreasing cloud cover /strong insolation/ and modest low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~10-14C) should foster moderate diurnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape) this afternoon. An upper level disturbance situated over eastern CO at 08 UTC this morning (refer to SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress eastward into central KS this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of this feature should tend to suppress convective development this afternoon, especially in northwest KS. While isolated diurnal development cannot be ruled out along geographically/climatologically favored portions of the Palmer Divide (CO) invof peak heating (~21-00 UTC).. substantial convective development is not anticipated. With the above in mind, expect predominately dry conditions. Tonight-Tue night: An upper level disturbance approaching the PAC NW coast at 08 UTC this morning will progress eastward across WA-ID (today), MT (tonight) and the Dakotas (Tue). An associated shear axis, extending southward along the lee of the northern and central Rockies late Mon night, will progress eastward across the Tri-State area Tue morning (~09-18 UTC).. accompanied by a modest lee cyclone (progressing eastward from southeast CO into southwest KS). Guidance suggests that southerly flow, low-level convergence and shallow moisture pooling on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned cyclone.. beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8.0-8.5 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates).. will foster a brief period of moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the Tri- State area Tue morning.. strongest along/south of I-70 in northwest KS ~12-15 UTC. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent (00-06 UTC) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary considerably with regard to the location, coverage and magnitude of convective development in northwest KS Tue morning. With the above in mind, a narrow spatio-temporal window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms may exist over portions of the NWS Goodland CWA Tuesday morning -- mainly invof the I-70 corridor in northwest KS around ~10-16 UTC. Thereafter and otherwise, benign weather and dry conditions are anticipated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 430 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Wed-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that NW flow aloft will prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period.. as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners (Wed) extends eastward across the Southern Plains (Thu). With the Tri-State area situated in relative close proximity to the aforementioned ridge -- on the southern /anticyclonic shear/ side of the upper level jet -- expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Fri-Sun: Long range guidance suggests a somewhat more active pattern in this period. Synoptic subsidence on the western periphery of an amplifying upper level trough over the eastern CONUS may aid in the development of a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and (potentially) an influx of rich low-level moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southern and Central Plains.. where a synoptic regime characterized by modest WNW-NW flow aloft will persist -- a regime in which [1] small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies may aid/enhance diurnal convective development on the lee slopes of the central/northern Rockies and [2] a large reservoir of instability (increasing with eastern and southern extent) may strongly support upscale convective growth and downstream propagation over the Central/Southern Plains. In other words, a pattern supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 500 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Light/variable winds this morning are anticipated to shift to the SE-SSE and increase to 10-20 knots late this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at either terminal at the end of the TAF period (09-12 UTC Tuesday). At this time, probabilities are low enough to preclude explicit mention at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent